By Antoine Mathieu, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine

QUEBEC CITY, QC. — In today’s article, I’m picking a team we love to hate to finish ninth in the East!

2014-15 EASTERN CONFERENCE predicted standings

1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Columbus Blue Jackets
3. Boston Bruins
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
5. New York Rangers
6. Montreal Canadiens
7. New Jersey Devils
8. Washington Capitals
9. Toronto Maple Leafs

2013-’14 summary: Toronto Maple Leafs

Regular season record of 38 – 36 – 8, 84 points,  12th East, missed the playoffs.

I know it seems cruel that I have the Leafs barely missing the playoffs but I think it’s a valid claim. Toronto has somewhat improved their roster and they were a playoff team for most of last year’s before their epic collapse at the end of the season. I think there are many factors that contributed to that downfall: coaching, player personnel and lack of leadership.

Under coach Randy Carlyle, the Leafs have been the team that allows the most shots per game. Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer have seen many games where they had to face over 40 shots a game. In fact, the Leafs even established a record for most allowed shots in a season, congrats boys! Somehow, despite getting outshot by 20 shots on certain nights, they found ways to come out victorious which made many fans question the existence of hockey Gods. The stats were proving that the Leafs were getting lucky and that success was going to come crashing down.

It didn’t take a mastermind to predict that the Leafs’ bubble was going to pop eventually and it did during the month of March. On March 14^th, the Leafs were comfortably sitting in third place and had a nine point cushion on the ninth team. Bernier was injured and the Leafs lost eight games in a row and by the end of the month were in 10^th place, two points behind the eight place team.

Carlyle, who won the Cup with the Ducks in 2007, has been pretty vocal in his lack of faith in advanced stats. Despite what seemed like inevitable at this point, the coach of Leafs denied that his team was getting outplayed and that it would blow up in his face. When it did happen, he stood at the podium clueless. During that eight game losing streak he didn’t know what to do and looked like he gave up on his team, the worst thing to do as a coach. Many fans were shocked by Brendan Shanahan’s decision to not only let him comeback for next season but to give him an extension.

To Carlyle’s defense, the Ducks had the likes of Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer and Francois Beauchemin at their blue line, that’s far from Dion Phaneuf, Carl Gunnarsson and Cody Franson.  The Leafs added Stephane Robidas and Roman Polak to their team this season and they hope these two stabilize their defense.

I don’t think Robidas is a bad fit in Toronto but I’m not a fan of the contract they gave him, there’s a lot of risk involved. Three years for a 37-year-old coming off two major leg injuries is way too much term considering the injuries he’s dealt with. I thought that Robidas would be a training camp invite with his disastrous season. I’m also puzzled by the fact that they committed to him that many years without seeing how he’d recover from his last injury. We saw how unpredictable a player’s recovery can be with Alexei Emelin‘s season this past year.

Now keep in mind that I said that Robidas is a good fit for their team. He’s a right handed shot, he’s shown the ability to play tough minutes in the past and his ability to make a breakout pass will complement Dion Phaneuf rather well. I think Polak is a downgrade on Carl Gunnarsson but from what I’ve read, Polak is a great teammate and should help change the team’s culture.

Another element that I brought up for their collapse was their player personnel: the Leafs had a weak fourth line all year and terrible possession players. When the Leafs dress ‘studs’ like Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren for a combined 81 games, the fourth line became useless and double shifts were required from the rest of the players. I think this small notion played a part in the Leafs’ brutal finish. The Leafs will most likely have David Booth (excellent possession stats), Daniel Winnik (ditto) and Carter Ashton or Troy Bodie on their fourth line next season. That’s not only a line that can contribute on the score sheet but who can also play regular minutes unlike Orr and McLaren.

The final element I’ll raise is the lack of leadership in the Leafs dressing room. I can only speculate but I’m not sure if Dion Phaneuf has what it takes to be a captain. The Leafs have experienced some  embarrassing moments with him as THE GUY (2013 Game seven, 2013-14 and 2011-12 collapses.) There has also been tension between Phil Kessel and Phaneuf which shows that the team is not a tight group.

Many things have to go right for the Leafs to make the playoffs: Cody Franson has to play like he did in the shortened season instead of looking like a fringe NHL’er. The 27-year-old defender has great offensive instincts and abilities but as shown with the likes of Andy Delmore and Marc-Andre Bergeron, you need to be responsible in your own end and that simply wasn’t the case last season.

Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly both need to have great seasons. Following the contract Gardiner was awarded; Carlyle can’t put him in the dog house next season. I’m a big fan of Gardiner and if Carlyle lets the kid play, I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes close to 40 points with the Leafs next season. Rielly should also have a better season, he should have adjusted to playing at the NHL level.

Bernier has to play as good as he did last season. Bernier was one, if not the main reason for the Leafs’ success last season. But the Leafs can’t solely rely on him to steal games, they have to allow a lot less shots than last year (35.9 shots allowed a game.) It’s hard to expect better statistics (.923 save percentage) but even a slight drop could hurt the team.

David Clarkson has to play better: it’s simple. His contract was terrible from the get-go but he’s still better than the five goals and eleven points he produced last season. The 30 goal season was without a doubt an anomaly but he still has a fifteen goal average throughout his career. Even if he’s not scoring, he has to make his presence felt on the ice, that could mean by landing a big hit or getting himself in a fight to pump up his team.

One of the low risk signings has to pay off. Last year the Leafs rolled the dice with Paul Ranger and Mason Raymond, the latter worked out, the former not so much.  Dave Nonis signed David Booth, Petri Kontiola, Daniel Winnik and Mike Santorelli to cheap one year deals. One of them will most likely end up being a solid signing (my bet is on Santorelli) but the rest have to somewhat deliver for them to have a shot at making the playoffs.

Tyler Bozak has taken the next step in his game but can he keep it up? The Regina native set a personal record for points in just 58 games. Is he a 50 point player or a 60+ one? If he can keep it up, the Leafs have themselves a legitimate first line center, which is something they haven’t had since Mats Sundin.

James Van Riemsdyk and Phil Kessel have proven to be among the elite in the NHL, I have no worries about them continuing on their previous success but Joffrey Lupul and Nazem Kadri are two players that could bring them terrific secondary scoring. Lupul was on pace for less than 50 points this season and considering his injury problems, he’s quite the wild card. I think it’d be a huge mistake for the Leafs to trade Kadri. 22-year-olds who produce 50 points on a second line while bringing physicality is a nice luxury to have. If one of Peter Holland or Petri Kontiola pan out, it would give the Leafs some solid depth.

I’m not worried that Leo Komarov can replace Nikolai Kulemin in the role he was filling but some fans see more potential than that in the pest. Komarov has shown in the KHL that he can produce and many fans are hoping that he can translate that scoring to the NHL. I’m certain that he’s better than the four goals he scored with the Leafs in the lockout season but I’m not sure if he’s more than a 1o to 12 goal scorer.

Considering the number of what if’s I wrote in the Leafs’ case, I’m pretty confident that they’ll be in the mix but I’m not sure if they’ll be able to squeeze in the playoffs. They need to make some drastic changes in their style of play in their own end and with the same coach; it’s kind of hard to expect that truly happening.

Quick facts about the Leafs:

• Nine of the Leafs 38 wins were in a shootout.  They must find ways to win in regulation or overtime.
• Toronto allowed the most goals against in the third period, they have to play much better defensively for a full 60 minutes.
• Toronto was 25^th in the league for shots for, they have to be a better team in terms of possession.