By Antoine Mathieu, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
QUEBEC CITY, QC. — It’s the second day of my Western Conference predictions! Here’s the link if you missed the Eastern Conference,
2014-15 WESTERN CONFERENCE predicted standings
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Anaheim Ducks
2013-’14 summary: Anaheim Ducks
Regular season record of 54 – 20 – 8, 116 points, 1st West, eliminated in the second round of the playoffs in seven games.
The Ducks made several important decisions this off-season. They let go of their longtime starting netminder Jonas Hiller, acquired Ryan Kesler and Nate Thompson and signed Dany Heatley and Clayton Stoner. I think these moves make them a legitimate threat in the West and they may now very well be the team to beat next season.
The Kesler acquisition means that they finally have a real center icing their second line center, which has been a true weakness of theirs in the last couple years. As much of a Saku Koivu fan I am, his best years were behind him when he joined Anaheim. I’m sure fans appreciated his heart but beside his first season with the Ducks (52 points in 71 games), he didn’t really perform like a top six center for them. In recent years, he was relegated to a bottom six role and was given specific tasks (key faceoffs, protecting the lead, etc.) Nick Bonino occupied the second line spot last season and did remarkably well but Kesler is a clear upgrade.
Kesler helps the Ducks considerably in the faceoffs department as he hasn’t been under 50 percent since his rookie season. The Ducks struggled big time between the faceoff circle this season ranking 14th during the playoffs and 20th in the league during the regular season. Instead of adding another player like Zenon Konopka or Dave Steckel who are useless beyond faceoffs, they decided to add one of the league’s top two way centers.
The American forward will fit like a glove in Anaheim and will be loved by Bruce Boudreau who wasn’t afraid to use Brooks Laich in many situations back when he was coach of the Capitals. Kesler will most likely play the shutdown role with the Ducks which isn’t something completely unknown for the Michigan native considering he used to serve the same role with the Canucks. His solid play behind the Sedins’ earned him a Selke trophy back in 2011.
Obviously there are question marks surrounding Kesler and his health problems. Given the style that he plays, injuries are almost inevitable. I think it’s a good risk by Bob Murray considering the assets he had to give to acquire him. Murray was able to hold on to his blue chip prospects (Rickard Rakell, Devante Smith-Pelly, Sami Vatanen and Emerson Etem), didn’t have to give Ottawa’s pick (10th overall) and held on to his most valuable roster players. This doesn’t mean that Vancouver got fleeced; they acquired some solid players who will help them going forward.
Anaheim also added the freaking All Star Dany Heatley! A lot of people think he’s done but I could see Mr. 50-in-’07 sniff 20 goals next season.
1) If Heatley plays on the top Power Play unit.
Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are obviously locks on the power-play but last season Dustin Penner (2:16 mins a game), Nick Bonino (2:51 mins) and Teemu Selanne (2:24 mins) were used on the top unit. I don’t see how it’s not worth a shot to put Heatley with the two star forwards. He’s is as much of a gamble as Penner was last season (37 points in 117 games in the Kings’ uniform) or a 43-year-old Selanne (four of his nine goals last season came on the power-play.) The two Olympians helped Bonino reach career highs this season and much of it had to do from playing with them on the power-play. Twenty of his 49 points were obtained on the power-play playing with Getzlaf and Perry. I don’t see how the idea of Heatley on the top unit is a bad idea.
This is a video of all of Heatley’s goals and if you pay attention, a large portion of the goals he scores are in the slot from just waiting for a pass. I believe Getzlaf is good enough of a playmaker to set up Heatley on the power-play. Out of Heatley’s 372 career goals, 143 of them have come on the power-play. The Ducks could definitely use some help on the man advantage considering they were 22nd in the league in that statistic.
2) If Heatley shoots a lot more and gets some ‘puck luck.’
He only had 110 shots on goal last season which is well below his usual 200+ average in a season. He was also shooting at 10.9 percent which is well below his career average of 14.5 percent. Sure his skating is below average, but on the power-play it’s not that big of a deal. Let Perry and Getzlaf do their thing while Heatley waits beside the net to bury the puck in the net.
The 33-year-old definitely didn’t live up to his contract in Minnesota but it’s not like their known for being wildly offensive. Since Mike Yeo has taken over in 2011-12, the Wild has finished 30th, 23rd and 25th in the league for goals for and that’s with some pretty good offensive players such as Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville and Heatley. Also Minnesota was never outstanding on the power-play which probably didn’t help Heatley’s goal scoring.
Finally, the fact that a proven goal scorer like Matt Moulson (who wasn’t even struggling on an offensively deprived team like the Sabres) could barely produce under Yeo can testify that goal scorers don’t shine under his system. I don’t think 20-25 goals and 40-45 points are out of the question for Heatley given the right circumstances. If Penner is able to look good beside these two, why can’t Heatley do the same?
Let’s not forget they they acquired Nate Thompson from the Lightning for mid-range picks. This move might have slipped through the cracks for certain fans but I’ve always been a fan of his. He’s been a solid player for the Lightning in the playoffs and is excellent at his role. Certain fans might only remember him for this embarrassing moment.
But Thompson has quietly been one of the league’s top 4th line centers in the league. He’s a solid penalty killer and guess what? He’s an excellent faceoff guy. With the departure of Nick Bonino (left handed), Saku Koivu (lefty) and Mathieu Perreault (yep: lefty), the Ducks needed a left handed center able to take faceoffs for them.
Bob Murray was doing so well but he just had to sign Clayton Stoner to a very questionable contract. Stoner is a decent bottom pairing defenseman but I don’t think many people expected him to get those numbers come July 1st. A salary of $3,250,000 is a lot of money for a 5/6 defenseman. I understand that he fills a role for them and is a better option out there than Mark Fistric but that’s still hard to justify.
Stoner is what he is, a stay-at-home defenseman who will play a tough game and protect the goalie. He had 99 hits and 65 blocked shots last season. It is worrisome that the Ducks paid that much money for a defender who was essentially sixth in the Wild’s depth chart. He didn’t see a lot of ice time on the penalty-kill or at even strength. It’s worth pointing out that Nate Prosser, who was a teammate of Stoner last season, took 21 days before finding a team and he had to take a two-way deal. Hopefully for Anaheim, this is not a Jeff Finger type of situation for them.
This signing makes Bryan Allen expendable for the Ducks since he and Stoner are pretty alike in terms of effectiveness as a shutdown role. Allen is a lot older and makes $250,000 which is a big deal for a team on a budget like the Ducks. This contract is also justifiable when you take a look at the contract statuses of Anaheim’s defense group: Sheldon Souray (yep he’s still in the NHL), Francois Beauchemin and Bryan Allen are all on contract years. Stoner will most likely play with Vatanen on the bottom pair.
The reason why I don’t have the Ducks ahead of the Blackhawks is because their goaltending concerns me. There’s no doubt that John Gibson is a blue-chip prospect but he’s still unproven at the NHL level. Sure a handful of games where he looked solid might have you sold on him but I recall Brian Boucher and Patrick Lalime looking like total studs in their first stretch in the NHL too. That doesn’t mean that Gibson doesn’t deserve some of his hype based on his credentials including AHL Goaltender of the month, WJC’s best goaltender, OHL’s best save percentage.
But going into the season with two young netminders is almost unheard of in today’s NHL. The Blue Jackets did it in the shortened season but even then, Steve Mason and Sergei Bobrovsky had more NHL experience than Gibson and Frederik Andersen. It’s a risky move but it could pay off for the Ducks. For what it’s worth, I’m a lot more confident in Gibson than Jake Allen in St. Louis. I think the Blues are in for a long ride.
The Ducks are replacing respected leaders like Koivu and Selanne with youngsters and I think that’s the right philosophy to have. Devante Smith-Pelly should play a key role in the Anaheim’s top nine next season. The 22-year-old plays a lot bigger than his six foot frame and has a pretty unique package with his combination of strength and speed. Smith-Pelly is a pretty good candidate to play on the top line with Perry and Getzlaf. We saw these three play together in the playoffs and they did very well.
Anaheim is also expecting to see a progression from Jakob Silfverberg who was one of the main pieces coming back in the Bobby Ryan deal. The Swedish forward definitely has the tools to be a good top six forward (speed, wrist shot power and release.) The 23-year-old dealt with dealt with some hand issues last season but his hands are far from the problem. He will need to find consistency like most young players but on a line with Ryan Kesler, he could potentially have a breakout season and score 20 goals.
Cam Fowler emerged as a number one defender and has truly turned it around since his draft year. Fowler was viewed as a one-dimensional defenseman in 2009 and that’s what led to him falling. The American defender suffered from the ‘oh we like this player better’ syndrome and went from being a consensus top five pick to falling all the way to the Ducks at the 12th spot. Fowler has become one of the league’s best two-way defenseman and will look to build from an excellent season that saw him get named to the USA Olympic team last year.
Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen both had promising rookie seasons in their own way. Fans are expecting both of them to keep progressing. Lindholm should be stronger next season (he was 197 pounds according to NHL.com) and will be given more responsibilities. Francois Beauchemin, who turned 34 last June, can’t keep playing over 23 minutes on average a game like he did last season. Beauchemin had probably the best season of his career in the lockout season (he was named on the Second All-Star team) but he wasn’t as effective last year. It’s possibly that starting next season, Lindholm slowly starts taking some minutes away from the French Canadian defenseman.
The Ducks have two solid role players in Andrew Cogliano and Pat Maroon. Cogliano has turned his career around since leaving Edmonton and had one of the most successful seasons of his career last year (22 goals and 42 points) playing mostly in a defensive role. The speedy forward has built himself a niche as a center who can be used in all situations and at 27 years of age, he can serve that role for the Ducks for years to come. Maroon on the other hand is a bit of a late bloomer. The 6-foot-4 winger was acquired in late 2010 from the Flyers and worked his way up within the organization. He spent two full seasons with Anaheim’s AHL team before finally getting called up last year. He’s one of the league’s upcoming power forwards and could become the Ducks’ very own Bryan Bickell if he keeps performing well in the playoffs (7 points in 13 games last season.)
Bruce Boudreau has really rejuvenated a team that hadn’t really been a threat since winning the Cup in 2007. Boudreau has a 111 – 55 – 22 record with his new team since being hired in late 2011. But the Capitals’ former coach has failed to translate that success in the regular season into the playoffs. In the eight NHL seasons he’s coached, he’s never made it beyond the second round of playoffs. His track record in game sevens isn’t too shabby either: 1 – 5. The 59-year-old could very well be a modern day version of Jacques Martin, successful in the regular season but that success disappears in the playoffs.
Quick facts about Anaheim:
Last season was the first time Ryan Getzlaf hit the 30 goal plateau, was it an anomaly or will the playmaker start scoring more?
Anaheim finished first in goals for last season.
The Ducks were the only team last season to have a winning record when they don’t score the first goal.