By Stevo, AllHabs.net
MONTREAL, QC. — There was a heated debate this past Friday on Twitter, after fellow-writer and friend Chantal posted her column [All Habs Mailbag: Letters to Chantal] where she answered reader’s questions about the Montreal Canadiens. The debate itself was whether the Montreal Canadiens were a Cup contender going into the 2011-12 NHL season. Ponder that thought for a few minutes while you continue reading.
Following this debate, I got to thinking about the Montreal Canadiens offseason and wanted to share some of those thoughts with you.
Goaltending:
I don’t really have any issues with the goaltending. Call me biased but if I were any of the 30 general managers in the league, Carey Price would be the goaltender at the top of my evaluation list. I don’t expect anything other then a long-term contract thrown his way following the upcoming season, in hopes of locking him in with the Habs for the long haul.
With regards to Peter Budaj, as much as I’ve made it very well known that I believe Pierre Gauthier should have kept Alex Auld, I think I’m starting to understand Gauthier’s plan a little better, if I understand it at all that is. With regards to Auld, it became clear that although he did well, and above expectations for the little time he was here in Montreal, the Canadiens didn’t have enough confidence in him, to sign him for a second season.
So on to Budaj, who up until now in the NHL, has been a complete bust with regards to the expectations that he would develop into a clear number one. Gauthier still went ahead and signed him to a two-year contract, and has been clear through the media that Pierre Groulx, the Canadiens’ goaltending coach, will be spending a lot of time working with Budaj. Ok, so why the Budaj?
Call this my gut speaking, but I believe that when Alex Auld was signed, the decision had pretty much already been taken that he would only be around for one year. The search was already on, for who they believe could fulfil a long-term number two role, and I believe Gauthier thinks he has found this in Peter Budaj.
Pierre Groulx has two years to help Budaj find his game within a system where his role will be clear, that being a number two goaltender, who should expect to play no more than 20-25 games during the season. If he can accept this role, and find his confidence, matched with his reputation of being a great teammate and great in the locker room, the Price/Budaj duo could be in Montreal for more than two seasons. Just a thought.
Defense:
There are many x-factors on defense before the season has even started.
- Will Markov’s knee holdup? And if so, will he be his ‘old’ self again?
- Will Gorges’ knee holdup?
- Will Yemelin crack the lineup?
- Will Weber play regularly?
Only time will tell us the answers to these questions, but it’s clear that in the best of scenarios, the Canadiens could have a very dangerous defensive unit on the blue line, but on the other side of the coin, one could argue that one should be hopeful for the best, but plan for the worst. Look for Gauthier to make a depth signing on defense before the start of next season.
Forwards:
Take the Montreal Canadiens forwards from last season, remove Jeff Halpern, add Erik Cole, and that’s what you have for the upcoming season as your twelve-man unit. As the Canadiens have only twelve forwards signed, look for Gauthier to also add a depth forward before the start of next season. Call it a hunch.
I do believe that with Erik Cole in the lineup, the Canadiens have a better offensive unit then they did last season, but what looks good on paper doesn’t always look good on the ice, so I prefer to be cautious with my expectations.
The following questions come to mind with the Canadiens forwards:
- Will Erik Cole be all that and a bag of chips?
- Will Max Pacioretty be the player he was prior to being injured?
- Will Scott Gomez have a bounce-back year?
- Will Andrei Kostitsyn silence the critics and demonstrate he deserves a long-term contract?
- Will the lack of grit on the Canadiens roster continue to be what many believe to be an issue preventing the team from reaching that next level?
Again, much remains to be seen before we can answer those questions.
Now back to the debate, have you made up your mind? Can we say at this moment that the Montreal Canadiens are Cup contenders? I don’t believe that to be the case. I think it’s much too early to make this type of prediction, I think that there’s too much hockey to be played before that call can be made, and so much could happen between now and then.
Is it possible that the Canadiens could have a great season, get into the playoffs, and have Carey Price shut the door and lead the team to the Cup? Of course it is, anything is possible. To call the Canadiens Cup contenders in August however, I think is much too early.
Also available at AllHabs.net, check out:
- CTV’s Brian Wilde Previews Habs 2011 – 2012 and
Habs Preview Part II with Brian Wilde: The Room, Steel Balls, Little Girls – by Iain Carnegie - Who’s This Guy? – Darren Dietz – by czechtacular
You already know i agree. Time will tell. And Habs, like all other teams, will need a very healthy roster this year. This is my main concern with Cole especially. The bum knees don’t bother me, and i believe Patches is strong enough mentally…
Is it October yet ?
Completely agree, although I’m less worried than you with regards to Cole. Will his point production continue, that I hope!
Thanks Chantal!
I agree completely that roster health is something to be concerned about. No team goes injusry free for a whole season.
Having said that, I tend to agree with the likes of Arpon Basu who feels that the team will definitely make it into the playoffs in the coming season. And if you make the playoffs – you’re a Cup contender (IMHO). We all know that after 82 games are played – it’s a whole new season.
I too have some concern regarding Markov, but I’d take him at 90% over most others at 100%. With Gorges, Markov, Subban and Gill playing strong, I expect more PP goals and therefore (in a nutshell) more victories.
With the heart that Cole has – I expect great things from that line. He’s on the rise (talent wise) and his heart fits into the room perfectly.
As far as Pacioretty goes – pretty sure he’ll take some time to get back in form – but come November – he’ll be a beast.
Nice read Stevo! Interested to hear more of your thoughts on Budaj.
Iain, good points. But, for me, “cup contender” doesn’t mean anything this time of year. We can look at all teams, on paper, and pick out a few that stand out by the quality of their personnel. But that doesn’t guarantee anything once the puck drops.
As for playoffs, Habs could easily miss them if something goes wrong. And once in playoffs, i wouldn’t tag everyone as cup contenders. They just all have a shot, it’s math. LOLL
Again, is it October yet ??!
Not sure i would link Gorges nor Gill to PP goals, Markov, Subban and Weber (or maybe even Yemelin and Diaz?) yes.
Stevo’s X-factors for d are all good questions and i would guess all 4 should turn out positive, but just have some reservations about Weber’s defensive play, but d-core should be much improved offensively at least.
I would love to see Mara accept a 2 way deal, the d-core is still way too soft as a group, i doubt Yemelin is the type to drop the gloves to stand up for a smaller teammate, or Price would he?
This is and will be a polarizing question. I had been thinking about this and a lot of my thoughts were crystallized during a conversation I had on twitter with Habs beat writer Eric Engels. He started by saying that he believes 7 Habs will hit 20 goals in 2011-12 (Pacioretty, Cammalleri, Gionta, Plekanec, Kostitsyn, Cole and Subban). On paper, I agree with this. It’s hard to imagine that any of those 7 won’t get there, except maybe Subban, who will, however certainly improve on his total of 14 from this past season.
Laws of averages usually kick in and prevent those things from happening. But *if* those players remain healthy enough and productive enough, they can all hit 20 goals, and probably average 25 goals between them. That would represent 175 goals. Add in let’s say 60 more goals between Eller, Desharnais, Gomez, Markov and Darche (average of 12 each), and that would then total 235 goals on the year, or 19 more than they scored all of last season – and we haven’t counted the other 10 players who would make up the roster. Simply put, if Price maintains his level of play and if those players do put up those kinds of numbers, then yeah, the Habs are big time contenders.
That’s a lot of ifs, and I can’t see them all actually coming to fruition. Looking back at teams that came very close to having 7 20 goal scorers over the past few years, all of them were teams expected to do well; the Caps, Sharks, Flyers and BlackHawks. Are the Habs that class? It would be bold to say yes at this point. But the Habs do have better goaltending than any of those teams have had in recent years while piling up those impressive goal scoring totals. I can envision big things for the Habs if all of those players hit 20 goals, backed up by Carey Price.
Ultimately though, there’s something in the back of my mind saying that it can’t or won’t happen. Call it realism or cynicism, but the system that the Habs play doesn’t allow for those types of numbers to be posted.
As for the name of the game being “just make the playoffs because anything can happen”, I think that’s a sucker’s game. We all know HabsWatch and we all hopefully read his piece on this site that clearly displays how Martin’s system stifles the Habs, and how the vast majority of the past 10 cup winners were top scoring teams in the league, and were division winners (hence having home ice advantage for at least a portion of the playoffs). Stats in this context don’t lie. Belief in an underdog is great, and as Habs fans we’ve seen what it leads to. But ultimately it led to nothing but a few extra games.
In the 09-10 playoffs where the Habs were upset kings, they were not even halfway to winning the Cup, and although they came within a goal of beating the eventual cup champs, that can be attributed more to the Bruins playing tentative, nervous hockey at the start more than anything (if you don’t believe me, listen to Gorges’ interview on 990 after signing. In it, he stated that he didn’t believe that the Bruins played all that well in the first round, yet the Canadiens hung in there with them. What does that say if the Habs couldn’t beat a team that wasn’t playing well?)
There is lots to look forward to this upcoming season. I do expect the Habs to improve upon their total of 96 points from 2010-11. But as for them being Cup contenders? I’ll believe it if and when they win the division.
Great discussion, Steve!
Amen Kyle. Very well put.
ahhhhh, love these discussions :)
We can only really have these discussions in the offseason, or early part of the season, but it’s the ultimate battle between what a team looks like on paper vs what they actually will do on the ice in the upcoming season.
// Side note: Kyle, you gave me an idea! (to be continued…)
Iain: I look at the team right now, and with everyone healthy, I find it hard to believe they can’t improve on last season. The other side of my mini-wheat however tells me, that all teams probably feel the same, and the chances of the full roster being healthy all season is next to null. (for any team really).
I hope they make the playoffs and if they do, like Chantal says, they have a mathematical chance of going all the way. I see now we define cup contenders a little differently, I see it more as a small group of teams, maybe 5 or 6, rather than the 16 that get in. Anyhow, we are all hoping for the same, but honestly, I’ve always had a “I’ll believe when I see it” approach, and I won’t change anytime soon ;)
Don: From what I remember last season, it appeared to me Weber was at his best when playing regularly on defense. The stints at forward and layoffs in the press box didn’t help, it always takes him a few games to get back into it. I think that if he’s used regularly this season (which I fear he won’t), he could do some good things. Much remains to be seen. (Yemelin might be determining factor on whether Weber is 6th or 7th D IMO)
Kyle: I saw a part of this discussion this morning and it’s an interesting approach. What’s funny is you went all in on this idea, and then somehow folded before the river lol. (no insult intended)
Ok, ‘thinking out loud here’… and did a quick stat search.
Last season, only two teams (Flyers and Sharks) had seven 20+ goal, with 259 and 248 respectively. The highest scoring team was the Vancouver Canucks with 262. So in the very best case scenario, I would see the Canadiens in the 240-250 goal range at season’s end, but that’s best case scenario. (Other than these two teams, no other team had more than four 20+ goal scorers).
So if we take history and probability, and factor in Jacques Martin’s defensive system as you mentioned, I find it hard to believe that the best case scenario will happen, and my soft expectations would see the team rather finishing the season with maybe four or five guys in that range of goals. But i guess were all just guessing at this point.
That being said, the Bruins I believe were one of the best five on five scoring teams last season, and they only had three players with 20+ goals, yet still had depth going all the way down to the third line, so I don’t necessarily think the Habs need that many players in the 20+ goal range to do well. It’s gonna take a bit of everything, and luck.
I fully agree with your conclusion, let’s wait and see.
Fun talk, thanks everyone!
I agreed with the 7 x 20 sentiment simply because when you look at each player individually, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t get there. I certainly can’t say which one won’t 20. Call it a EA Sports vieepoint.
But realistically, given the system, law of averages and hockey god, 20 x 7 is not something I’m going to bank on. Unless I was given odds. Really good odds.
Going into any season there are many dependencies to success.
Forward:
The addition of Cole certainly won’t hurt and talking about hurt, that is a big part of the dependency. Who can last an 80 game schedule with the least damage. I think Cole with his style of play will revitalize a few existing HABS forwards who have been struggling. He should be a great fit. I don’t see any reason why Max won’t return and be the power forward expected of him. If he does having Eric and Max in a 1 – 2 punch will certainly be fun to watch. A few surprises like Desharnais can only get better and I won’t be surprised to see Aaron Palushaj on the bug club getting more time especially if there are injuries. Eller hopefully healthy and 1 year under his belt should be much improved!
Defense:
Trying to convince Emelin to jump ship for 3 years and now here he comes. We’ll see but I have a sneaking suspicion that he will be a pleasant surprise. A hidden secret Diaz, this kid who nobody seems to want has always seemed to give NHL players fits at the international level and never seemed to back down. I can’t say I’m convinced but the Habs seem to give these kids a shot a la likes of Mark Streit who missed last season due to injuries but produced at a good clip and managed to keep his head above water in the +/- on a the worse team in the NHL. Diaz seems to be of the same breed and I hope the Habs give him a fair shot, hence I don’t think they signed him for nothing. I think the Habs liked what they saw at the international level. Anybody watching him at the Olympics and WC can’t be blind and the Habs brass couldn’t ignore him any longer as many teams do dismiss Swiss players. I do think the Habs will be taking a close look at both players in exhibition and early on in the season and it may mean little playing time for the slowing Mr Spacek if the young kids hold their ground. And to think that the best is yet to come in the next few years in the Junior ranks.
Goalie:
If you take any team in the NHL and asked them to straight trade (today) they’re current goalie for Price the trade would be made, including the Aging Tim Thomas. I like Price and when the Halak trade was made I was one of few who said the Habs made the right choice. Price is currently “Very Good” and has the poise and talent to become “GREAT” As Forrest Gump would say “Thats all I have to say about that”!
Hey Dan, I completely agree with you on Carey Price. You were not alone, myself, Rick Stephens (@All_Habs) and @HabsWatch and many others were of the opinion that the Habs needed to go with Price. Price possesses in my opinion, all of the assets to dominate the position, as an ex-goaltender, he’s a pleasure to watch play practically every single time.
With regards to Diaz, I could be wrong but I strongly believe he is destined for the AHL this next season. As is the case with Yemelin, I always believe it’s best to play one year in the AHL, before entering the NHL, in order to adapt to the north american play.
Where I believe Yemelin will have the edge and possibly make the lineup as yearly as next season, is because many believe his style of play, is already considered a north american style of play. Also for the fact he supposedly brings a lot of toughness and grit to his game, which the Canadiens desperately need.
I am however happy with the Diaz acquisition, and believe he might be one of those first call ups should any injuries occur this season.
Thanks for leaving your comments!
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