By Jared Book, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine

MONTREAL, QC — Advanced statistics is a sports revolution that became popularized with Bill James, Moneyball and baseball and has making its way over to the hockey world as well. Hockey Prospectus, the sister of its baseball counterpart is one of the most prominent “fancy stat” sources. They recently released their 2013-2014 hockey annual and I had the chance to ask a few questions of contributor Rob Vollman about the upcoming season with an eye on the Montreal Canadiens. Rob, aside from contributing to HP also has his own Bill James-like Hockey Abstract where he tries to answer questions about who the best players and coaches in the game are with unique analysis.

All Habs: VUKOTA [Hockey Prospectus’s projection system] seems to expect Alex Galchenyuk to make a jump in GVT [which is Goals Versus Threshold – Hockey Prospectus’s attempt to categorize a player’s offensive, defensive and shootout performance into one number compared to a replacement player. Think VORP in baseball] that would put him close to elite production. Is that jump realistic?

Rob Vollman: There are always a wide range of expectations when dealing with a teenager coming off such a strong rookie season, but a lot of signs are pointing up. In recent memory only a handful of players outscored Galchenyuk as an 18-year-old – Sidney Crosby, Jeff Skinner, Steven Stamkos, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sam Gagner. We know he wasn’t particularly sheltered, we know he wasn’t boosted by linemates – his most frequent linemates were Lars Eller and Brandon Prust, and only a single one of his points was with the man advantage. So yes, a breakout season isn’t entirely unrealistic.

AH: Daniel Briere is coming off of a very tough season, but there seems to be some chance of a rebound. Briere is passed his prime that sees him as one of the top playoff forwards in the league since 05-06, but can he remain a legitimate top-six forward on what should be a playoff team?

RV: Expectations for Daniel Briere, who turns 36 next month, should be kept modest. He’s not a strong defensive player, and offensively is probably only capable of making secondary contributions. That being said, it never hurts to have someone of Briere’s experience, especially if he’s matched up with the right youngsters.

AH: Last year, you can make the point that Montreal won the division despite a subpar year by Carey Price. Again, there seems to be enough for a rebound seen by VUKOTA, but where does Price stand in your eyes especially coming into the season with a new goaltending coach.

RV: While it’s always hard to project goaltending, there’s every reason to hope for a bounce back season from Carey Price. He’s only 26, is trying to prove his way on to Team Canada’s roster, and his numbers last year were right near his six-season career lows. The question is whether he’ll be a league-average goalie, or one of the league’s best – we expect he’ll fall about halfway in between.

►Vollman breaks down Price’s chances of making Team Canada for All Habs readers. Check out… “By the Numbers: Carey Price an Olympian?“

AH: VUKOTA sees Montreal as 8th in the league, while your abstract sees Montreal behind Ottawa, Detroit and Boston. Where do you expect the Canadiens to fit in to the new alignment coming off of a surprising division title?

RV: Yes, both systems agree that Montreal is a top-ten team, somewhere around 7th or 8th, but there are three other strong teams in their new division (Boston, Detroit and Ottawa). They’re all so closely matched that I’d essentially give Montreal a 1-in-4 chance of finishing on top.

AH: Which players do you see being either surprising or disappointing this season that we may not have talked about so far?

RV: Andrei Markov is turning 35 in December, had his first healthy season since 2008-09, and earned 23 of his 30 points on a hot power play – so obviously he might cool down. P.K. Subban might also cool down a little from the Norris trophy level.

You can visit Hockey Prospectus here. You can find more information about how to purchase both their annual and Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract here.