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Advanced Stats: The Unmeasurables

By J.D. Lagrange, Senior Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine

Statistics will tell you if a player is a goals’ scorer, a play maker, an enforcer, a powerplay specialist, a faceoffs guru, an offensive or defensive player, amongst other things. With the newly found popularity of advanced stats in hockey, the methods of analysing hockey games and its players are getting more and more complex, cumbersome and hyperbolic, and that’s not necessarily good for the game.

PENTICTON, BC. — Hockey is a team game. You can have the best defensive player on the ice but if the other four players are lacking defensively, or if you have a horrible goalie in net, that player will have poor statistics. It doesn’t make him a defensively bad player but if someone relies on stats and supports their arguments with stats, they’ll argue hard as rock that he is.

There are many other major factors in the game of hockey that cannot be measured with statistics with some easier to understand or appreciate than others. In some cases, it helps to have the living experience behind you in order to appreciate the effectiveness of some of those factors. One can claim all they want knowing what it feels like to battle cancer but those who actually have or are battling that fight have a much better sense and idea of what it’s like.

Let’s explore some of the things that cannot be measured with statistics in hockey, and how it affects the game:

Intimidation
I have, in many occasions, locked into debates with people not believing in the effectiveness of an enforcer or having a team filled with players who can hit and drop the gloves at any time. Because one cannot prove something that’s not happening and because it cannot be measured by statistics, many people downplay this important aspect of the game. It does however have a huge impact on the way a team plays. This is a perfect example as a factor where having played in such situations gives a better understanding of its impact. Not all players but some of them get intimidated by physical play in the corners, some don’t like going in front of the net, getting hit, and they will get rid of the puck quicker than they normally would against teams that don’t hit has much. Some cheap shot artists are a lot more visible against smaller teams without enforcers or guys who will drop the gloves. How do you measure that? Not by stats, but by watching their demeanor on the ice. For example, since Marc Bergevin signed Brandon Prust and when George Parros was in the line-up, the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators have behaved much better than in previous years. Yet, Parros apparently had terrible advanced stats numbers.

Grit and character
How does one measure grit? I guess looking at the number of hits, fights or blocked shots, someone may attempt to qualify a player as being gritty. But it goes so much further than that! A player’s willingness to sacrifice his body in order to make a play, that’s being gritty. A player, in spite of a size disadvantage, goes into traffic and battles, or gives that player a solid body check, that’s gritty. Battling and digging the puck in the corner, bouncing back from a solid hit, determination, those are all part of the grit of a player, of his character. Some people are laughing at Marc Bergevin when he says that character is one of the primary qualities he looks for in a player. Why? Likely because it can’t be measured by stats. Yet, when talent is equal, grit and character is what differentiates winners and losers.

Pain tolerance
Another key point that cannot be measured statistically is the ability of a player to play injured. Some players have a very low pain tolerance and will not play (or play as hard) unless they feel at 100%. Others will have to be forced not to play by the coach or the organization, as we’ve witnessed in many occasions with Josh Gorges. Most players play injured in the playoffs. Not as many do during the regular season. It may affect their statistics a bit while playing injured, and statistical analysts will see that stretch as a slump. Teammates and coaches will see it as a someone having a high pain tolerance wanting to help his team regardless…

Defensive responsibility
While there are plenty of defensive statistics, especially the attempt by advanced stats, none can paint the full picture to determine if a player is defensively responsible or not. In most case, educated fans don’t need statistics to determine that. Phil Kessel and Alexander Ovechkin put up outstanding offensive stats but defensively, they are a liability for their team. Others will look at players making a diving effort and say that a player is good defensively, when in reality, he had to dive because he wasn’t in proper position to start with. How does one measure that with stats? It’s impossible. Coaching Rep hockey, I know which of my defensemen I like to see when the opponent comes on a two-on-one or a three-on-one, as I know that they’ll make the right decision. I also know which ones I cringe seeing in those situations. Yet, we seldom use stats in minor hockey in general. We saw Tomas Vanek make some great back checks… after turning the puck over. Some wingers are much better than others at getting the puck out of their zone. Defensemen know it too and so do the coaches. It’s not measured with stats, but the success rate can certainly affect other stats for everyone on the ice, one way or the other.

Offensive responsibility
It’s easy to count goals, assists, points, shots on goal, shooting percentage, powerplay points, first or second assist, and so on. How do you put into statistic someone’s offensive flair? A player’s ability to find the open ice, to position himself into a good passing lane to make it easier for the puck carrier? How do you measure a players’ ability to position himself in order to draw a defenseman with him to give options to his teammates on the ice? How does one quantify the effectiveness of a player placing himself perfectly in front of the net to make the goaltender’s life difficult, preventing him from coming out to cut the angles or to see the puck? Those are key plays during a game and they often go unnoticed by traditional fans, especially those who have their nose into stats guides. Yet, coaches, players and GMs notice the players doing the little things right.

Hockey IQ or hockey smarts
It’s not like school here. You can’t just take a test and here’s your result. How does a player react to the play, how is his anticipation, both offensively and defensively? Does he pass the puck at the right time? Does he shoot when he should be? How is his vision on the ice, his ability to recognize plays when they develop, at both ends of the ice? How does he read the plays? Does he get the coaches’ systems and can he adjust depending on game situations? It was said many times that while Wayne Gretzky was not the best skater, while he didn’t possess the best shot, he could anticipate the play two or three passes before it happened. That’s an example of possibly the best hockey IQ to ever put on the skates. But how does that reflect (directly) into his stats, his records? Because it cannot be measured doesn’t make it less important when judging a player’s abilities or his effectiveness in a game.

Skating ability
While we can see if a player is a fast skater or not, there are no stats qualifying skating attributes. I was talking to speedster Russ Courtnall a few years ago at the BC Hockey Hall of Fame and we chatted about a tip that the Roadrunner, Yvan Cournoyer, had given him back when he was playing with the Canadiens. Cournoyer told Courtnall to stop skating in zig-zags, that with his speed, if he went in straight line, no one could keep up with him skating backwards. In that series against Boston, Russ took Cournoyer’s advice and blew past none other than Raymond Bourque and scored a beauty goal. How strong is a player on his skates? How hard is he to be knocked off the puck? How quick is his transition game, going from offense to defense or vice-versa? How is his body positioning, for shooting or pass reception? Can the said player be as effective skating with and without the puck? How are a defenseman’s pivots from the right side and the left side? There are no stats for those but does anyone think for a second that they are none factors during a hockey game and don’t affect statistics one way or another?

Chemistry
Ah chemistry. A school topic, a science none the less, one that emphasizes measurements, solutions and yet in hockey, it’s an intangible. Go figure. Why is it that you can have three extremely talented players on a line and they don’t generate anything? Change one of them with a lesser skilled player and that line is on fire. It’s like they know, without knowing, where each other will be at any given time. Yet, it will have a direct effect on their stats either negatively or positively. You have two defensemen who will play extremely well together while others will be all over the place. It doesn’t make them bad or better, it’s that they do or don’t have chemistry with that other player. But scoring chances will be prevented or created, goals will be saved or generated because of it, and it will be reflected on their statistics.

Team player
How does one measure through stats his willingness or unwillingness to buy into a team concept? You have a player who is accepting to take a certain role on his team, who will do what the coaches are asking of him. A good example of that is Dale Weise who has said himself being happy in Montreal because he was given a role. With John Tortorella (twice), he wasn’t. It affected his utilization, his stats, in a negative way back then and while he is the same player, he is more effective today. While his statistics were different, he was always a good teammate, a good team player but how would that be measured? If a guy doesn’t stir any controversy in the dressing room no matter his role, if a player steps on his personal ego for the better of the team, it makes for a better team and that again cannot be measured by stats.

Leadership
Perhaps one of the most underrated qualities by statistical fanatics is the leadership of a player. Yet, it’s one of the most coveted qualities by GMs and coaches in a player. Those are the guys you don’t need to motivate as a coach. They’re the guys who lead by example, they guys who will step up in the dressing room to rally the troops. They’re they guys who, when things aren’t going well during a tough stretch, will stand up in the dressing room and help motivate, cheer and put a positive spin on the situation. They’re often players who have been there and done that, players whom the young players can respect and build their career at their image. You also have silent leaders who will preach by example by always giving their best effort, whether it’s in practice, training in the off-season, or in games. There are no statistics that can measure the leadership of a player but it’s a key component of a winning team.

While it’s not surprising that some bloggers would want to create such hype in an attempt to make themselves relevant to the hockey world or to find their niche, it is mind boggling to me that so much talk is being generated with advanced stats these days, so much emphasis is being place towards such statistics, when so many unquantifiable key factors make little to no headlines amongst hockey gurus, the professionals of the sport. Less time needs to be dedicated to the “Corsi and Fenwick” of this world, and more to the “Orr and Cherry” of the game.

We need to stop putting so much time and effort towards quantifying and need to put more focus and emphasis on qualifying when watching the game of hockey. We need to bring the balance back to the middle and take statistics, advanced or traditional, for what they are: a compliment to the game, one that does not tell the whole story.

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