All Aboard the Pain Train!

By
Rick Stephens
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7
89
Posted by Kyle Roussel

Invisible Rust is Worse than Surface Rust

If you’ve ever done body work on your car, you know that sanding off surface rust is not that hard, or that big of a deal. Put on some putty, sand, buff and repaint. It’s the rust the resides beneath the paint, that you can’t see. It grows, deepens and spreads. Then one day, you bump your car against something as innocuous as a shopping cart, and the whole cancerous mess is revealed. No amount of buffing or sanding will help. You’re now talking about cutting out entire sections of your car’s body and welding on new sheet metal. That is a very big deal and is very difficult, and unless done by the pros, the patchwork always shows.

As our 100th season was falling apart at the seams, even before the Bruins bounced us in 4 straight, it was becoming apparent to me that things were heading down the wrong path. I’m unsure what the organization was thinking in going in to this season with so many unrestricted free agents. I don’t mean that in a condescending way…I truly don’t know what the thinking was. Was it simply the thought that frequently, and historically, players searching for a new contract come up with “career years”? Was the idea that so many of our UFAs would all have “career years” at the same time, which, by extension would carry us to the cup?

Could the thinking from from an entirely different place? What I mean is, could George Gillet have insisted that Gainey allow as many contracts to expire as possible so that when he sells the team, the new owners would have as little committed salary to pay as possible going forward?

I don’t know, but what I do know is that half of our team is eligible to leave as of July 1st. Some see that as a great thing – lots of cap space, an opportunity to clean house, a chance to get a new face and identity to the team – a fresh start. The catch to that line of thinking, as I’ve been saying for a long time, is that cap space is useless unless you’ve got players that want to come to play for you.

This is the “beneath the surface rust” that I was talking about. The problems on our team go a lot deeper than just a couple of wayward kids, who would otherwise be labeled as surface rust.

Finally, the Truth is Coming Out!

Now comes this report from La Presse: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/sports/hockey/200904/30/01-851793-ces-joueurs-qui-ont-peur-de-montreal.php

If you’re not up to speed on your French, I’ll highlight some key points in the article for you:

According to a prominent agent representing hockey players (speaking on the condition of anonymity in order not to strain relations), between 75 and 80% of unrestricted free agents do NOT want to play in Montreal. Reasons for that include: high taxes, harsh winters, and wives (seriously?). Curiously, politics and the education system were left off that list, though I’m sure they figure in to it as well.

The unnamed agent goes on to say that most players today are aware of Montreal’s great past…but don’t care much for it. It makes for great stories, but doesn’t carry much weight today. They use the past 15 years as more of a reference point. And between all of us, the last 15 years have been anything but peachy in Habs-obsessed Montreal. Two additional incidents were referenced as making HUGE waves around the league’s players, again which contribute to players wanting to stay as far away as possible:

  • The uncalled for booing of Carey Price in the playoffs;
  • The journalists who staked out Jose Theodore, checking up on him to see if he really was injured.

Again, curiously left off the list was some idiot reporter and photographer barging in to Saku Koivu’s private hospital room after his eye had been severely injured a few years back. Imagine the genius thinking there: a guy has a badly damaged eye. Let’s take this camera and blindingly bright flash and bombard him with it. Awful.

In short, the pressure is immense, ALWAYS on, and the press make Montreal an unpleasant fishbowl. None of this is a groundbreaking revelation, but now it’s out there in print for all to see. Does it carry any credibility? I say it does. Will it sink in? Not a chance. Some will dismiss it as garbage journalism, since there’s a mysterious agent who refuses to identify himself…it could be fake, right? I don’t see that as the case. I see it as the ugly underbelly finally showing itself. Look at the past few years. Bob Gainey made offers that were over and above what they eventually signed for to the likes of Brendan Shanahan, Daniel Brière, and Ryan Smyth. All chose to go elsewhere despite being offered more money to play here, and knowing that they’d have all the ice time and opportunity in the world to succeed. Clearly, there is something – or some things – that are preventing players from signing here. It’s as clear as day, and the question that does not need to be asked is “why doesn’t Gainey sign anyone?”. It’s clear that Gainey has tried. Many times in fact. The last time I checked, Gainey was a pretty well respected man in NHL circles. I’m sure there are many players that would love to play for him. The question that needs to be asked and more importantly, resolved, is “why won’t premier free agents sign here – and how do we change it?”.

Any Mechanics in the House?

How does this get fixed? The tide was changing, as recently as last year. Vincent Lecavalier went on record as saying that Montreal is becoming a hot destination again. Not coincidentally, the Canadiens were playing the best hockey the city had seen since the cup run of ’93, en route to an Eastern Conference title. Winning cures everything. But when the wheels fell off this year, the fans and media were ready to devour this team. People were, and still are out for blood. Consider that in what was supposed to be a celebration of 100 years of Les Canadiens:

  • The head coach was fired, shortly after being labeled as the GM’s best move since taking the job
  • Several young players were exposed as being a little too committed to the nightlife, and not enough to practice
  • Other players were linked to organized crime
  • The team’s on-ice performance was less than impressive (injuries, lack of character, lack of skill)


There’s probably more that I’m forgetting (and please leave a comment below if I have forgotten something)…but surely NONE of these are things that HELP attract talent here. The only thing that can help is winning. Peace and quiet, and winning. Sadly, peace and quiet will never reign, and winning is a tenuous proposition. There’s going to be a storm of controversy this summer over many things:

  • The Canadiens draft needs. Media wants more Francophones. More Canadians. What will happen?
  • Free agents; who to keep, who to attempt to sign
  • New coach
  • New GM (Although I’m not convinced that Gainey will be gone)
  • New owner
The latter is, of course, the largest factor of them all. A new owner would presumably want his own people in place, especially a Serge Savard who himself has 2 Stanley Cup rings as Habs GM. The timing on all of these issues is critical. If changes don’t happen in the very immediate future, you can bet that things will probably not change. You can’t have such significant turnover when an important draft is right around the corner. Oh, and just to add more fuel to the fire, did I mention that the draft is in Montreal this June? Different management groups have different perspectives on what type of player to acquire, and what type to stay away from. Serge Savard practically outright refused to draft European players, opting instead for North American talent. As a result, we drafted such luminaries as Terry Ryan, Lindsay Vallis, Turner Stevenson, Matt Higgins, and Brad Brown. Ouch. Stevenson was the only one to make a decent career, albeit as a 3rd-4th liner. Now we have a ton of European talent, unfortunately much of it does not even want to play in North America, much less Montreal: Pavel Valentenko, Alexei Yemelin, and Alexander Perezhogin come to mind. Again, ouch. My point is strong focus and scouting at the amateur level is so crucial for the Canadiens because free agents don’t want to play here. Someone has to, so it has to be players that you own the rights to.

Everything is Up in the Air

No team has more drafted talent on its active roster than the Canadiens, and I think that’s where it will have to keep coming from. That’s a credit to Trevor Timmins and his scouting staff. The challenge for management and the coaching staff will be to create an environment of winning and excellence within their organization which will materialize on the ice. They need not only good players, but they need good players who CARE. It’s fairly obvious that many of the players on the Habs roster simply don’t care about the team’s fortunes. I’m talking mostly about the Kostitsyn brothers. Perhaps my biggest disappointment with this team is that with Gainey as GM (then coach), Carbo (before he was canned), Jarvis and Muller, you had perhaps 4 of the team’s best character players of all time. Why they couldn’t get more passion from their players, or recognize that there’s no character there is beyond me. All that being said, only when the Canadiens give off the perception of stability and success will free agents begin coming here. I thought Gainey was on the path to creating stability until he fired Carbo at the “nudging” of several players. Nothing like telling the players that they’re truly the ones in charge.

Then there’s the fan expectations and the media glare. We have to hope that people in both of those circles begin to understand the impact they have and the impressions they create around the league. The playing field is so level now that there really isn’t any incentive to coming to Montreal. Given the choice of the same money, less taxes, the same sport, but more privacy and less pressure, which would you take? Be honest – put yourself in the shoes of someone who isn’t from Montreal, or isn’t a Habs fanatic. The answer is pretty clear to me.

When all the dust clears, I bet is that Gillet stays as owner (for now at least), as does Gainey as GM. It’s too critical a summer for such major change. It would only stir the waters of controversy, which require very little agitation to begin with. What decision will be taken for the new coach? Lemaire, Hartley, Robinson, and Crawford are all available. Don Lever is already with the club. Is the next coach among these names? No matter who is hired, there will be controversy surrounding it. There needs to be a strong hockey management group in place to make those calls, and should Gainey & Gillet be gone, who’s left to make those decisions? Pierre Boivin?

If you ask me, the Canadiens stand on the brink of a long downward spiral. But they also stand a good chance of recovering and remaining a competitive team if a lot of things go the right way. A lot of “ifs”. I’m not sure if they’ll all fall in to place, and if they don’t, I think we’re in for a couple years of turmoil as this team tries to put itself together again. Think about it – every level of this organization has a huge question mark hanging around its neck, from the ownership, right down to the empty roster.

It pains me to think that this could get a lot worse. I thought we were done with the dark years, but I fear that shadow is creeping up on us again. What do you think? Am I out of my mind with pessimism? Are the Canadiens in a good spot going forward? Please share your thoughts! It’s going to be a long time before we see the Habs on the ice again, let’s keep the conversation going!

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7 COMMENTS

  1. “The unnamed agent goes on to say that most players today are aware of Montreal’s great past…but don’t care much for it. It makes for great stories, but doesn’t carry much weight today. They use the past 15 years as more of a reference point.”

    Well said. I agree completely. Montreal seems to be more about stories than success at hockey.

  2. Not sure I agree with your pessimism or optimism.

    A very pragmatic way to look at the season is to look at the number of games lost due to injury. In 2007 we lost 145 games and got 94 points.

    Those 94 points were the maximum we credibly believed we could reach with that team.

    In 2009 we lost 245 games due to injury, and got 93 points and that was viewed as a very serious disappointment.

    For some detail:

    http://eastmeetswest.krung.net/east_meets_west/2009/05/lost-games-due-to-injury.html

    This year’s team is significantly better than the team in 2007.

    The problem is that this team woefully underperformed over the last 42 games.

    In our first 42 games our record was 25-11-6.

    In our last 42 games our record was 16-19-5.

    Are we a top four team with 112 points or are we bottom 4 team with a 74 point record?

    I believe in the original record more than the latter record.

  3. @HabsTwit – Sad, isn’t it? That a franchise is framed more in the light of what it has done as opposed to what it wants to do.

    @kostadis – I believe that the team that finished the season is probably closer to the 112 point team – if they’re all healthy. The problem now is that 50% of the roster is set to leave, and history is clear that equal talent will NOT come here as free agents.

    Not sure how you approach that problem. You either promote kids who aren’t ready, or you overpay for mediocre UFAs. That’s a surefire way to the basement.

  4. Kyle,

    You’re making a pretty bold assumption about all of the talent leaving.

    So we have
    Komisarek
    Koivu
    Kovalev
    Tanguay
    Robert Lang
    Schneider
    Bouillon
    Dandenault
    Brisbeois

    Of that talent, the players who would hurt to leave are

    Kovalev
    Koivu
    Tanguay
    Lang

    And there is no guarantee those players would leave. Kovalev wants to sign, Koivu will sign, and tanguay hasn’t expressed a desire to be elsewhere.

    Lang drove from Chicago to Montreal because he wants to play here.

    And in spite all of the durm und strang, Hamrlik *wanted* to play in Montreal.

    The player we’re all having heartburn over is Komisarek.

    Frankly, if Gainey can turn the 10 million dollars he paid to Schneider and Komisarek into 10 million for JayBo, I’m not so convinced that we’ll be worse off.

    I think you’re too negative.

    You can check out my thoughts at my blog:

    http://eastmeetswest.krung.net/east_meets_west/2009/05/the-overly-pessimistic-habs-fans.html

  5. I don’t know that things will get worse, Kyle. I suspect they’ll stay about the same: Montreal remains a 8-9-10th place team (in their division) — they make the playoffs every few years, don’t go anywhere but makes some cash for the organization, and life goes on.

    Similar to Toronto, the franchise doesn’t seem to be able to allow a Islanders / Atlanta / Tampa Bay style collapse. Toronto was suppose to tank this year; but ended up in 11th, out of Tavares contention.

    So look for 50+ more years of mediocraty — until the fans finally stop caring, generation after generation grow up with no championships… then maybe the team will properly rebuild.

    I doubt I’ll ever see another Stanley Cup in Montreal, but there is always fun in hoping :)

  6. @kostadis there’s not one assurance that any of those players will be back. Kovy wants to be back, but is he worth the hassle, distraction and controversy? I’d bring him back at a reduced price. Like 3.5 to 4 million. Koivu has not made any indication that he’ll be back, and has said that if he isn’t signed by July 1st, chances are he’ll be gone. All he said is that “my plans and the team’s plans have to match”, which to me translates to “I still want to be the #1 guy, I want a long term deal”.

    Lang may never fully recover from his achilles heel injury. Tanguay may come back, but at what price? Without snipers around him, he’s not going to be much use.

    Let’s just assume that all of these players are brought back. Are you suggesting that the Canadiens can contend with a core that will be another year older? the average age of those players will be about 35 years old.

    And I think we overlook the impact Schneider had. Price played well in the first half which covered up the power play’s ineptitude, but when he faltered, all warts were revealed. Only when Schneider come back did the PP come to life. Add him back to the core and the average age rises yet again. You can’t win in this league when your core is all in their mid to late 30’s, even early 40’s. It’s a young man’s game now, and the Canadiens do not have enough young top flight talent. And there’s none in Hamilton either. All we have there is a bunch of #3-4 defensemen and 2nd line at best forwards.

    As for Komisarek, the problem will be that some foolish GM will be crazy enough to give him a 7 year deal worth 45 million dollars. As we saw this year, he’s not worth that kind of money, even on his best day. Time will tell with him, but losing him would create another big void.

    We also have restricted free agents that had lousy years (Higgins, Kostitsyn). We could offer them cursory 10% raises (which is all they deserve), but other teams could swoop in and try to pry them away from us.

    My larger point is who’s going to be around to make these choices? It’s too late now to ditch Gainey. But that being said, Gillet would sell if the price was right and the deal on the table. Typically salary dispensing gets put on hold while new ownership/leadership takes hold. That would put the kibosh on signing superstars, wouldn’t it? Then you’re back to overpaying to bring back the same old core, which in my mind does not have a lot left in the tank.

    There’s too many big decisions to make this off season, and with so many potential voids in management and coaching, the brink of disaster is pretty close if you ask me. All I’m saying is that there is potential for this to go downhill. I think a lot of people aren’t seeing that. I believe that most fans think that with all of the free cap space, Gainey will bring in a pack of superstars. History shows that is highty improbable. And circumstances are the co-conspirator to ensure that doesn’t happen. I hope I’m wrong.

    @HabsTwit – if fighting for 8th place and a shot at the playoffs is the goal (and it seems to be for the past several years), then we will be, as you say, stuck in this cycle forever. Some years we’ll creep in, some years we’ll fall short. But mediocrity will always be at the heart of this organization.

    Thanks for the comments guys, love the discussion!!

  7. Kyle,

    I don’t believe you go from scoring 27 goals to 12 goals in a season for no good reason.

    I don’t believe Andrei K’s real ability is 23 goals.

    I don’t believe Plekanec’s real talent level 39 points.

    If Andrei K adds 10 goals, Plekanec adds 10 goals, and Higgins adds 10 goals, we’re already a much much better team.

    I also don’t believe that Obyrne is as bad as he was this year.

    And I don’t see why they all couldn’t improve.

    And frankly Max Pac, Dagostini and others will improve the team.

    So I don’t think our core is the 30+ year olds.

    kostadis

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