by Mathieu Chagnon, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
Are you getting used to a June trade by the Montreal Canadiens? Marc Bergevin struck again, this time trading Alex Galchenyuk, the general manager’s very first draft-pick as a member of the Canadiens. In return, Montreal received Max Domi, the son of the former agitator Tie Domi.
That trade, like the last two major trades of Bergevin, brought again vigorous backlash from the Habs fan community. But, Max Domi and Alex Galchenyuk are two completely different type of players, one is a playmaker and the other is a scorer.
Before proceeding, you will notice that I will be using the eSAT metric to analyse both players. You can read the introduction to eSAT to have a better understanding of it.
Quick notes for eSAT:
- The eSAT FAR describes the quality of the offensive supply or the capacity to convert it into successful attack. At five-on-five, first line players should show a minimum ratio of 53.8 percent, and second line players a minimum of 48.5 percent.
- The eSAT AAR shows the quality of opportunities allowed to the opposition and the capacity to shutdown it and iIt will also tend to increase when players are in possession of the puck, therefore stopping the opponent offense to obtain opportunities.
Let’s dive into it’s analysis.
In term of point contributions, they have approximately the same ratio. Let’s look at the last three seasons to have a good comparative overview. Galchenyuk collected 66 goals and 85 assists, while Domi collected 36 goals and 99 assists.
However, Galchenyuk collected 36.4 percent of his points on the power-play compared to 23.7 percent for Domi. But the power-play is highly influenced by the team system, and the Coyotes finished 25th, 27th and 26th with the man advantage in the last three seasons.
As we know, most of the game is spent at five-on-five and this where things get interesting. Galchenyuk had 34 goals and 49 assists (30 primary assists), for a total of 83 points. Domi had 23 goals and 59 assists (47 primary assists), for a total of 82 points.
eSAT performance evolution at five-on-five for Max Domi over the last three seasons:
On the graphic we can notice that Domi has maintained a strong eSAT FAR at five-on-five since the beginning of his career. He concluded his first season with an eSAT FAR of 55.2 percent (65th), his second at 53.3 percent (95th) and last season at 54.9 percent (70th).
The little dip under the fifty percent mark last season was when he was employed as a center for 25 games, where he only maintained an eSAT FAR of 43.0 percent. Let’s hope that the Canadiens do not plan to use him as a centre. On the other hand, while he was playing on the wing that same season his eSAT FAR was at 59.2 percent (16th).
One thing that could be considered alarming is his eSAT AAR has kept trending lower since the beginning of his career. This could be explained by the fact that he spent most his time with rookie centres like Christian Dvorak and Clayton Keller. In Domi’s first season, he played with experienced centres such as Martin Hanzal and Antoine Vermette.
eSAT performance evolution at five-on-five for Alex Galchenyuk over the last three seasons:
On the graphic, we notice that Galchenyuk’s eSAT AAR at five-on-five is quite consistent from one season to another. However, last season it was simply horrible from an offensive perspective, only reaching an eSAT FAR ratio of a fourth line forwards at 40.7 percent (334th.)
The problem is that Canadiens management did not believe in Galchenyuk’s ability to play centre, instead, choosing to give his minutes to Jonathan Drouin. In my opinion, the analytics showed that the Canadiens should have pursued Galchenyuk’s development as a centre.
- For the 2013-14 season, Galchenyuk played as a centre throughout (65 GP).
eSAT FAR: 47.1% eSAT AAR: 42.5%
- For the 2014-15 season, Galchenyuk played as a centre throughout (80 GP).
eSAT FAR: 55.8% eSAT AAR: 51.8%
- For the 2015-16 season, Galchenyuk started the first 44 games as a centre.
eSAT FAR: 53.6% eSAT AAR: 46.8%
- Citing difficulties on defense, the organisation played Galchenyuk on the left wing for 21 games.
eSAT FAR: 61.6% eSAT AAR: 48.4%
- Then they returned Galchenyuk to centre to finish the season.
eSAT FAR: 62.5% eSAT AAR: 41.4%
- For the 2016-17 season, Galchenyuk sustained two knee injuries. Prior to his second injury, he played 30 games as a centre.
eSAT FAR: 58.7% eSAT AAR: 46.7%
- Following his second injury, Galchenyuk had difficulty finding his bearings as a centre for 21 games.
eSAT FAR: 48.2% eSAT AAR: 52.5%
- Given his offensive difficulties at centre, the Canadiens moved Galchenyuk back to the wing for the last 10 games of the season.
eSAT FAR: 45.2% eSAT AAR: 36.2%
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Looking at the eSAT comparison, there seems to be no definitive winner of the transaction. Therefore, I will choose to consider it a fair trade for now. If we base the data on just last season, it appears that Domi should bring more help at five-on-five than Galchenyuk on the wing.
However, were the Canadiens lacking a left winger? Perhaps they will if they decide to trade away Max Pacioretty. However based on the analysis that Galchenyuk was a better centre than a winger, he could have answered one of the biggest needs in the Habs lineup.
Nevertheless, Marc Bergevin decided that Galchenyuk would not regularly play centre last season. That decision led to Galchenyuk’s worst season of his career, damaging his market value. It’s hard to understand why a rationally-minded person would not want to give Alex a chance knowing the team had such a huge lack of quality centres.
In my opinion, I am prepared to give the benefit of the doubt to the Canadiens. They dealt with Galchenyuk and his problems over the past six seasons. It had come to the point where they decided to part ways with him.
In return they obtained a younger, very talented, hard-nosed player. In addition, the money saved on the salary cap could come in handy.