Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings are busy preparing this week for their NFC semifinal game with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. The Vikings have been one of the favorites all season to emerge as the NFC’s representative to the Super Bowl. Adrian Peterson is the Viking’s franchise player who some Minnesota fans love to hate.
The Vikings are blessed with a terrific offensive line and two talented running backs, Peterson and Chester Taylor. Peterson and Taylor are considered one of the NFL’s top running back tandems. In fact, many were surprised when the Vikings selected Peterson in the 1st round of the 2007 draft with the seventh pick overall. Taylor was coming off a 2006-07 season where he rushed for a career high 1216 yards.
This season, Minnesota was cruising along with an 11-2 record. Then the Vikings lost two in a row against the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears, two non-playoff teams that should have been easy wins. With a berth into the Super Bowl less assured, the knives came out.
While there was lots of blame to go around, a very vocal group of Vikings’ fans directed their anger at Peterson, and his league-leading six fumbles lost. They were upset that all of the fumbles had occurred against division rivals with half of them versus the lowly Detroit Lions. Some suggested that coach Brad Childress should rely more on the less risky, Taylor.
Fans have their favorites, and fanaticism is not rational. Those in the Taylor camp while focusing on one statistic, too easily dismissed the fact that Peterson led the NFL this season with 18 touchdowns and was 2nd in rushing in the NFC with 1,383 yards.
Statistics aside and fan’s blind loyalty aside, there is not one NFL general manager who would dare to say that the two running backs are close to being equal in talent. Taylor is a very competent and underutilized backup, but he is not a thoroughbred.
Is any of this sounding familiar?
Such silly comparisons are not the monopoly of fans of the NFL. In Montreal, we witnessed fans and media alike advocate that Michel ‘Bunny’ Larocque should start over Ken Dryden and that Brian Hayward was the more consistent option over an emotional Patrick Roy.
For those who have been following the current goaltending situation in Montreal, there should be obvious parallels when reviewing Vikings’ running backs or reminiscing about Canadiens’ goaltending greats of the past.
At the time, speaking about Larocque in the same breath as Dryden only served to artificially inflate his perceived value. But when we look into the rafters of the Bell Centre, we see the sweaters of Roy and Dryden while Hayward and Larocque are no more than an afterthought.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There’s a lot of hockey to be played but there is only one of the two current Canadiens’ goalies who has the potential to be honoured in that way.
Until then, we have a so-called “goaltender controversy.” Is it a true controversy with two equal goaltenders competing for the number one job? No, but this is Montreal. As explained above, fan choices are made for a variety of reasons and are certainly not driven by logic.
In short, Price has been given a calculus test and Halak one on basic arithmetic, and some are trying to compare the results, sometimes in excruciating detail.
There is no one who assesses talent with an NHL team that believes that Halak is on par with Price. That presents a challenge to Bob Gainey given his team needs when he tries to shop Halak. He needs more than a second round pick (probably fair value) in exchange for Halak. But Gainey is a smart general manager. He has used the controversy fueled by fans, media and partly engineered by the Canadiens, to improve the perception of Halak.
While pro scouting departments from other teams generally focus on the play on the ice, they aren’t completely immune to hype. And right now there is a buzz around Halak that might make general managers say “I wonder…” Besides, Gainey doesn’t have to convince every GM in the NHL that Halak has the potential to be a number one goaltender. He needs just one trading partner.
Gainey and his team have done a masterful job in creating interest in Halak. They have carefully managed Halak’s starts giving him the best opportunity to look good against inferior opposition. When it was publicized that Halak has only won two games against teams over .500 all season, Gainey and Martin gave him a start at home against New Jersey.
New Jersey is an elite team in the league, but what was the worst thing that could have happened by starting Halak? Despite their lofty position in the conference standings, the Devils are 21st in the league in goals scored on the road. It’s unlikely that a Jacques Lemaire coached team was going to fill the net and expose Halak’s weaknesses. While Halak allowed a soft goal and looked shaky early on, the Canadiens got the spin that they were looking for. Based on a strong third period, some media painted the picture that Halak went “toe-to-toe” with Brodeur despite recording another loss against one of the league’s better teams.
Being spoken of in the same sentence as Brodeur and Price only helps fuel the mystique of Halak. Some media are doing their part in promoting Halak driven by a desire to punish Price for “stealing” the job of their golden boy, Cristobal Huet. Despite a mediocre career primarily spent bouncing around the European leagues, and never having one even a single playoff series, Huet enjoyed his best press while in Montreal. Some still carry his torch in their persecution of Price.
Fans have always been kind to Halak, choosing the side of the underdog. The Slovakian goaltender has never been subjected to the same pressure and scrutiny as Price. They have been willing to overlook Halak’s career struggles on the road and against better opposition given that he was quiet and likable. His goaltending style is quirky, and creates a lot of rebounds, but he is a battler.
Even Halak’s loose-cannon agent, Alan Walsh, played a part in fueling the goalie controversy. The jury is out on whether Walsh helped or hurt his client when he publicly trashed Price via Twitter and then chose to insult all Montrealers rather than apologize for his inaccurate and unprofessional tweets. Whatever Walsh’s intent, the comments were clearly divisive yet shone a league-wide spotlight on the Canadiens’ goaltending tandem.
Certainly not to be forgotten is Halak’s contribution himself. With the assistance of a carefully managed schedule, Halak has performed very well. He has helped the Canadiens win the games that they were expected to win while improving his individual statistics. We are probably seeing the best that Halak has to offer right at the time that he is being showcased to potential suitors.
Its the perfect storm. Halak’s trade value will probably never be higher than it is right now.
It would seem obvious that now is the best time to trade Halak although some suggest waiting until March 3, 2010. While the trade deadline often brings the best return for forwards and defenseman, the rules are a little different for goaltenders. The trade market for goaltenders is mostly determined by need and availability.
There are even some Halak supporters who hold on to the illusion that the Canadiens will keep both goaltenders. That won’t happen for many reasons. Market value means that Price is entitled to a large raise at the end of the season. Bumping up Halak’s salary would mean that Canadiens would have too much money tied up in goaltender salaries. In addition, the Canadiens’ tight cap position means that it is simply not a realistic scenario. In addition, it is not healthy for the development of either goaltender to live under the fear of a single mistake determining wherther they start or sit on the bench.
Lastly, there is the important detail that Halak has asked for a trade. It marks the second occasion that such a request was made although this time, it was much more public. While some fans in the Team Halak camp choose not to read between the lines, Jaro and his agent did everything short of erecting a billboard on the corner of René Lévesque Boulevard and de la Montagne to signal his desire to leave Montreal in the hopes of securing a number one position elsewhere.
The Olympics also complicate matters this season. Halak will be competing with Peter Budaj for the starting job with Team Slovakia. Halak won’t be protected from playing the stronger teams as has been the case with the Canadiens. Although its possible that Halak could continue his strong play, he did not enjoy much success in his last international tournament. Last Spring, Halak struggled at the 2009 World Hockey Championships posting a 1-3 record, with 3.17 GAA and .871 SV%.
While predicting Halak’s performance at the Olympic is impossible, it is the lack of control that must be worrying Gainey and his team right now. They have worked so hard to build a sellable story. All that could be exposed in the Olympics.
It is clear that the window on ensuring the best trade offer for Halak is closing rapidly.
Is it possible that while Peterson and the Vikings are taking on the Cowboys this Sunday, and the Canadiens prepare to play the Rangers, that we could hear news that the Montreal goalie controversy, which has been both organic and artfully engineered, is finally over?
The question that still needs answering is that if Halak's value is as high as it will ever be and there is still no real market for him, what are the next steps?
And like you said, the Olympics could undo everything the Canadiens have done to build up his value. If he has a poor showing, he's toast and his value plummets.
So is it a matter of hanging on to him for as long as possible because he's worth more to us now than a 2nd round pick would be (assuming that pick ever makes it to the NHL)? Or is smarter to move him now, taking the gamble that the Olympics will in fact burst the Halak bubble and you maximize what he's worth?
I'm still torn on that one.
I know, and agree that Price is the top dog, and that unless Halak pitches shutouts in the rest of his starts, or otherwise puts in superhuman efforts, he's not going to change that. That said, the anti-Price camp is going to be some kind of pissed once Halak is moved. The pressure will be cranked up another few notches once the "controversy" is over. The Price haters will have their microscopes and daggers out en masse. The anti-Price camp still feels badly wronged last year for what they feel was highway robbery on Halak; they believe that he got them in to the playoffs and deserved to play in the series vs Boston. It's obvious that he would not have changed the outcome, but that won't stop people from blowing their stacks.
One way or another, this will continue to be a interesting, and heated debate, and will likely continue to be so even once Halak is wearing another team's colors.
Excellent post.
You masterfully present your own opinion as fact. Well done.
It's amazing the lengths to which supporters of this young goalie will go to support their dauphin. Now wins that could (I suppose) been guaranteed with Price were risked with the clearly inferior option. Luckily Halak won, and thanks to the instructions his defence were given not to defend, he even garners a save percentage worthy of leaguewide envy.
I like Price, I like his style and potential, but I'd ask to have him traded just to put an end to this nonsense.
I don't think the Olympics have much bearing on Halak's trade value whatsoever. Teams that make trades base it on way more than a three week tournament, though I would say he could improve his trade value far more than he could hurt it. The only risk of the Olympics is injury.
We both know that we disagree on a lot of this so I'm going to ignore all that for now to avoid an argument :) haha…. But I have other points I want to make.
I think at this point, for the team right now, we need both goaltenders. What matters is wins, and both are getting them. But, neither are getting enough wins on their own. For example, Price has a lot of losses, and before you say that it's because he played hard teams, know that he has more than (or same amount as) any other goalie in the league (including those who have played a huge majority of the games).
So theoretically, of Halak's games he would probably have had a similar amount of losses, so he would have about 10 more than any other starting goaltender, which is just ridiculous, especially since we are only about halfway into the season.
Clearly that means we still need a backup to play at least 1/3 of the games. I don't think any of our Hamilton goalies are ready or good enough.
If they have closed the book on the season at this point (which is insane because there is a good chance we'll make the playoffs) then maybeeeee I'd understand. But even so, it would really screw the team over, and I don't think that's fair to the team, or the fans who are paying money to go see the games, to see management just give up on the team.
I still don't see why it has to be one or the other, when we can clearly keep both for now. It'll be different later on, but for now we have 2 able goalies who complement each other well. Why not benefit from it?
Also I'm not sure if Martin and Gainey planned this like you said. I mean it's plausible, but it sounds almost like a conspiracy theory! haha.. You never know though, but I feel like it would take so much time and effort, and Halak doesn't seem the type to take up the majority of their time… He seems like such a team player, I doubt they'd be scheming for ways to get him out of there. I think it would just be done out in the open if anything. Honestly I don't know though…
And as for the trade request… he just said he wants to play, whether its here or elsewhere… I think if he got to play 30-40 games a year here he wouldn't mind, but he knows that eventually Price will be playing more.
I still think he's been pretty classy throughout. He has been truthful, but has never ever badmouthed Price or his other teammates, and has always been super appreciative of them. If he does end up going, he'll definitely be missed!!
Halak is a 'classy team guy' who has twice asked for a trade, most recently in a public way because he believes he is a number one goaltender. It's not unusual for athletes and their agents to look after their own self-interests but let's not assign pure and selfless motives to them.
At the end of last year, Bob Gainey was criticized for letting his free agents walk 'without getting anything in return' (I would argue flexibility and cap space) despite the fact that his team was both in a playoff race and up for sale (the Boivin handcuffs). And now Gainey is being criticized for possibly pursuing a trade during the season? So which is it?
For the life of me, I don't understand the discussion of losses. Price has similar loss numbers to Fleury and Luongo and only a couple more than Brodeur.
Yes, Price has fewer starts but who is to say that he wouldn't have reasonable numbers if allowed to start against the weaker teams? The difference between the number of losses between Price and the ones above would then be normal given the standings of their respective teams.
Topham – I'm sure that even you will acknowledge that save percentage against the Capitals is not comparable to save percentage against the Islanders. The quality of the shots faced are completely different.
The "highway robbery" comments of the anti-Price crew are pure mythology.
Price started the last 14 of 19 games prior to the '09 playoffs and lost only 4 games in regulation.
Halak lost every start in March and his only wins in April came against Toronto and the Islanders, who finished last in the league.
Team Halak will reference the Canadiens' four wins in February when Halak was in goal as if it was the sole reason the Habs made the playoffs. It's fiction.
Of the four games, Halak was superb against Vancouver (his best game of the season) and was very good at San Jose. But the other two wins have little or nothing to do with Halak. Against Ottawa Halak was shaky but it was the night that Kovalev returned. The Habs scored five and weren't going to be beat. Against Philadelphia, Halak gave up two weak goals but was fortunate because Nittymaki was worse.
In addition, by focusing on February, Team Halak is ignoring the fact that by most accounts Price was the Canadiens MVP for the first three calendar months of the season. Price's record was 16-4-5 which may have contributed to the Canadiens making the playoffs.
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