By Stevo, AllHabs.net
MONTREAL, QC. — No matter how many times we repeat that the season has just started, the fact remains, the Canadiens have put themselves in a precarious position, and they are now desperate to win games.
Many will tell you that it’s still early, and to not jump to conclusions in regards to the Canadiens’ struggle of a start to this season. “There’s still lots of time left for them to turn it around Stevo,” I can hear you all saying. I disagree, time is actually running out.
Since the Canadiens are approaching their seventh game, I decided to take a look at the start they’ve had over the last six seasons, therefore since the lock-out, and how their start had an impact on their overall finish in the regular season.
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There’s a few different ways we can look at this, but first, let’s look at where the Habs sit after their first six games:
- Record for First 6 Games: 1-4-1
- Record for Next 4 Games: TBD
- Record after 10 Games: TBD
- Points: TBD
- Regular Season Conference Finish: TBD
- Point Differential with 9th Position Team: TBD
(TBD = To Be Determined)
Since the lock-out, teams that have finished eighth in the Eastern Conference have averaged 92 points at the end of the regular season. If we divide the season into slices of ten games, that gives us a little over eight slices. What I’m getting to here, is that if we do divide the season into slices of ten, teams need to average over 11 points over each of those slices, to make it into the playoffs. So let’s round that off at an even 12 points.
Sure there are highs and lows during the season, and teams will overachieve over some periods, while they will underachieve in others, but the law of averages come backs to that number. You need about 12 points per ten game periods to make the playoffs.
Since the Canadiens have only three points in six games so far, that means that should they (and that’s a a big should), win their next four games, that would put them at 11 points over their first ten games of the season.
If you’ve looked attentively at the stats I laid out above, you would realize that even if they win their next four games, they are looking at their worst ten game start since the lock-out, with the exception of the 2009-10 where they only had ten points after ten games. They went on to squeeze into the playoffs in eighth place with the ninth place team only one point behind.
The numbers also demonstrate that even when the Canadiens did far better, there playoff spot wasn’t very secure, such as the 2008-09 season when they had 17 points after ten games, but ended up finishing eighth with the ninth place team only one point behind.
It simply demonstrates the importance of a strong early season start, and how each and every point is valuable towards the overall standings and where you might finish at the end of the season.
In a recent article by Rick Stephens, he quoted Elliotte Friedman who said the following:
“So, that’s something to keep an eye on. If your team is two wins out of the playoffs at the beginning of November, the three-point games give it a seven per cent chance of recovery.” — Elliotte Friedman
Read more: The 10-game rule and 30 thoughts
Elliotte’s been number crunching and it seems if your team is four points out of a playoff spot at the beginning of November, it only has a seven percent chance of making the playoffs. The Canadiens are currently four points out of a playoff spot, and there are four games remaining before the Canadiens reach their tenth game, and five left before November.
This doesn’t mean the season is already over, it doesn’t mean that the Canadiens won’t make the playoffs, but if history is an indicator, time is definitely running out. The Habs need to win, and they need to win now.
The average 8th place team since the lockout has finished with 92pts. To hit that mark, the Habs need 88 points out of a possible 150 remaining points available to them. In short, that’s about 59%. (I just did a lot of research for my most recent post, which is a nice companion piece to your entry here).
A 59% win percentage over 82 games puts a team at around 100pts. Can the Canadiens turn it around IMMEDIATELY, and play like a 100 point team for the remaining 75 games? Given the depth of their current problems, that’s unlikely.
So yeah, when people say “there’s lots of time left”, I just shake my head. Points in October are critical. They keep a team afloat when the inevitable injury bug strikes later in the season and give a team a “legitimate” excuse to start losing points. If that cache of points was never there to begin with, you’re done.
At this point, the Canadiens are rapidly circling the drain. It’s still not too late, but our best hope for the season is finishing 8th, and I don’t have to remind anybody how much success teams without home ice advantage have (i.e. – virtually none!)
Great stats by both you and Kyle.
I don’t have fancy stats, but i do know that points lost in October and November are hard to recover in March and early April. You’re just setting yourself up to depend on other teams hitting a slump at the right time and having to pray the Hockey Gods are on your side when you need that crucial playoff-clinching point in your last game of the year.
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