By Stevo, AllHabs.net

MONTREAL, QC. — The Montreal Canadiens are about to embark on the final stretch of this 2010-11 season, with only 32 games left to play in this 82 game season.  They currently sit in the seventh position of the Eastern Conference with 59 points, two points behind the New York Rangers (sixth), and two points ahead of the Atlanta Thrashers (eighth).

The Canadiens currently have a winning percentage of 0.590 and if (I said “IF”) they maintain this pace until the end of the season, they would finish with a total of about 96 or 97 points, which should be enough to get them into the playoffs.

In order to achieve this, the Canadiens will need to be equally dominant at home going forward as they have been so far this season.  They currently hold a record of 16-6-4 at home, only the Pittsburgh Penguins have more wins (17) in the Eastern Conference.  The situation is a little more concerning on the road, where the Canadiens currently hold a losing record of 11-12-1.

Most of Montreal’s success so far this season has not only been at home, but more specifically, within their own division.  Here’s a quick breakdown of how the Canadiens have done in this regard:

• Record against teams within their division:  11-4  (0.733 winning percentage)
  • Home record:  6-1
  • Away record:  5-2-1
• Record against teams within their conference:  11-10-2  (0.521)
  • Home record:  5-4-2
  • Away record:  6-6
• Record against teams in Western Conference:  5-6-1  (0.458)
  • Home record:  5-2-1
  • Away record:  0-4

It’s often been said that the Canadiens have trouble this season against Western Conference teams.  Although this is true, the fact of the matter is that they haven’t done all that much better against teams within their conference, with the exception of teams in their own division.  In fact, their worst home record is against teams within their conference, where the Canadiens are only playing one little game above the 0.500 winning percentage.

They’ve so far made up for it with their play within their division, where they have a home record of 6-1.  They also show a road record of 5-2-1, the only “road” winning record of the three categories I’ve listed above.

Now onto this final stretch.  For the past week, all I’ve been hearing in regards to the Montreal Canadiens is how difficult a final stretch they have before them.  I do understand that the team is battling through many injuries (Markov, Gorges, Cammalleri) at the moment, but is the final 32 game calendar really all that difficult for the Canadiens?  Let’s take a look.

February

• 13 games in 28 days.
• 8 games at home (vs 5 on the road).
• 4 of the 13 games are against teams ahead in the standings.
• 2 of the 13 games are against western conference teams.
• 4 of the 13 games are against teams within their division.
• 7 of the 13 games are against teams within their conference.
• 3 back to back match-ups.

Although the month is rather busy with almost one game to play every other day, the calendar itself is not all that difficult for the Canadiens.  They start off the month with three consecutive back to back games, each split apart by two day breaks.  In all three instances, their first game is against a team who is ahead of them in the standings (Washington Capitals, New York Rangers and Boston Bruins), but followed by a game (at home) against a team closer to the bottom of the standings (Florida Panthers, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders).

I wouldn’t expect to see Alex Auld play in the first back to back match-up, I’d even be surprised to see him in the second.  Where we are more likely to see Auld play is against the New York Islanders on February 10, where the Habs will be finishing their final back to back matchup, two games into a stretch that will see them play three games in four nights.

By using the winning percentages listed above, this month would translate into about seven or eight wins, or 14-16 points of a possible 26.

March

• 15 games in 31 days.
• 6 games at home (vs 9 on the road).
• 8 of the 15 games are against teams ahead in the standings.
• 2 of the 15 games are against western conference teams.
• 3 of the 15 games are against teams within their division.
• 10 of the 15 games are against teams within their conference.
• 2 back to back match-ups.

March could prove to be the “make or break” month for the Canadiens.  At first look, it seems to be a recipe for disaster.

After coming off of a month that will have seen them play 13 games in 28 days, they will go into the month of March having to play an additional 15 games in 31 days.  That adds up to 28 games over a 59 day period, or more than one third of the entire season within a two-month period.

Only six of those 15 games will be at home, where the Canadiens have had the most success this season.

Eight of those games will be against teams ahead of them in the standings.

Only two games all month will be against teams within their division.

Again, using the percentages above in the article, this month would translate into about eight wins over the 15 game period, “if” the Canadiens maintain the rhythm they’ve had so far this season.  It’s easy to think however that with the busy schedule, injuries that have plagued the team so far this season, and all the travelling that will be required that month, that those eight wins or 16 points might be very difficult to obtain.

April

The final four games of the calendar in early April are against:

• New Jersey Devils (Road)
• Chicago Blackhawks (Home)
• Ottawa Senators (Road)
• Toronto Maple Leafs (Road)

I won’t spend too much time on these four games, but will play it safe and assume the Canadiens can easily split these four games, and pick up four to five points.

All of this to say, the numbers look good for the Canadiens, at least good enough to let them squeeze into the playoffs.  However, because of the nature of the March calendar, I can’t help to think that once again this season, fans of the Montreal Canadiens will be biting their nails all the way down to that final game of the calendar, against no one other then the Toronto Maple Leafs.

If I had to make a prediction right now, I would say that Montreal makes the playoffs in the eight position.  The Atlanta Thrashers will surpass them by the end of the season and take over the seventh spot, while Cam Ward and the Carolina Hurricanes will give Carey Price and the Montreal Canadiens a true run for their money.

Finally, it all lies on Carey Price’s shoulders.  He will determine if this team makes the playoffs.  If they do, he will determine how far they go.  In an age where more and more people are questioning the importance of having a quality goaltender, Carey Price is proving that at least in the case of the Canadiens, the answer is yes.

(Graphic: Canadian Press)