by Jordan Lambe, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
Introducing my second annual All Habs Mock Draft! If you would like an introduction to this year’s draft and an updated source of all relevant statistics for over 90 of the top draft eligible players, check out the NHL Entry Draft Toolkit.
Below I will give an in depth description of each pick in the top ten, then quickly summarize the picks from 11-30 and outline my top choice for the “Sleeper Pick of The Year” title. Below the article, I will also include an excel spreadsheet including the predicted draft order for ten of the mainstream hockey analysts, including a “Total” column. The Total column has used each hockey analyst’s rankings, given it a reverse points score (from 30 to 1), and then added each of them together.
For example, if Auston Matthews is ranked number one by The Hockey News, than he would receive a score of 30 in that column. If Alexander Nylander is ranked eigthth by Future Considerations than he would receive a score of 23 in that column. Now that we have that cleared up, here is my 2016 All Habs NHL Mock Draft.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs – Auston Matthews, C, Zurich (SUI)
The message is simple regarding Auston Matthews. The kid has dominated at every level he has played in and excels in both ends of the rink. This past season he took the unconventional route to travel overseas to play in the Swiss League (NLA.) While playing in a respectable professional men’s league, and halfway across the world from his home, Matthews still finished second on his team in scoring with 46 points (six points behind Robert Nilsson while playing 12 less games.) I will admit that I am a little jealous about the Leafs winning the lottery as it is almost a guarantee that Matthews is a future superstar.
2. Winnipeg Jets – Patrik Laine, RW, Tappara (FIN)
Here are just a few of the many awards that Patrik Laine has accumulated this season: SM-Liiga Champion, SM-Liiga Top Player in the Playoffs, Sm-Liiga Rookie of The Year, Most goals in both the SM-Liiga Playoffs, U-18 Championships and U-20 Championships and MVP of the World Championships. Laine has shown his elite skill at every level he has played in this season, including the World Championships and SM-Liiga, which are both a very high level of men’s hockey. Laine’s shot is accurate, quick and an absolute rocket, and at 6-foot-4-inches, 201 pounds, he also the size needed to compete in the NHL immediately. Winnipeg fans sure do have quite a lot to look forward to by adding the Patrik Laine to their already stellar young core.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets – Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Karpat (FIN)
Columbus’ pick of Jesse Puljujarvi rounds out what I am tabbing as this year’s first tier of talent. He’s got size, 6-foot-3-inches, 201 pounds, and a very dangerous mix of speed and skill but is mostly known for his vision and passing abilities. Although his list of awards isn’t nearly as large as Laine’s this season, he did score more points than Laine and Matthews at the 2016 World Junior Championship, and brought home MVP of the tournament.
Only a year ago many pundits had Puljujarvi as Matthews’ only competition at the top of the draft, and had it not been for the miraculous play of Laine this season, he would have remained in that spot. Often compared to Jamie Benn, Jesse Puljujarvi will be a welcome addition to a potentially formidable Blue Jackets’ squad.
4. Edmonton Oilers – Pierre-Luc Dubois, LW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
Number four is where the unpredictability of the draft starts. The question is will the Oilers make a trade? Will they look to fill their void on defense? Will they add another forward to a near elite group? Ultimately, I do believe the Oilers go with Pierre-Luc Dubois. The Oilers have only selected two players from the QMJHL in the past four drafts (Marco Roy in the 2nd Round of 2013 and Keven Bouchard in the 7th Round in 2014), but Dubois has tantalizing speed, decent size and very good defensive awareness. As a Canadiens fan, I am still holding onto hope that Dubois falls to the Habs at nine, but realistically, I am certain that he will be picked long before Marc Bergevin takes the stage.
5. Vancouver Canucks – Matthew Tkachuk, LW, London (OHL)
I predict that the Vancouver Canucks will select Matthew Tkachuk fifth overall. While playing for the offensive powerhouse, the Memorial Cup Champion London Knights, Tkachuk racked up 107 points this season in just 57 games. To put that into comparison, Taylor Hall had 106 points in the 57 games in his draft year (the two also have similar height and weight stats.) One may argue that playing on a line with Christian Dvorak (ARI) and Mitch Marner (TOR) has inflated Tkachuk’s statistics to a degree, but his stats alone don’t paint the full picture as Tkachuk plays an aggressive game and is very strong on his skates and with the puck.
6. Calgary Flames – Alexander Nylander, RW, Mississauga (OHL)
At number six is the highly skilled and very fast, Alexander Nylander. Nylander won OHL and CHL Rookie of the Year this past season and led the Swedish WJC team in points (while being one of the younger members on the team.) The versatile winger may be slightly undersized, and need to work on his defensive game, but his skill and speed more than make up for that. Chances are the Flames allow Nylander at least another year in the OHL to work on his weaknesses and hone his offensive prowess. The addition of Nylander to a forward group that already has Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Sam Bennett makes me sure glad they are in the Western Conference.
7. Arizona Coyotes – Mikhail Sergachev, D, Windsor (OHL)
Arizona is on deck next and they should select Mikhail Sergachev at number seven. While Nylander may have walked away with OHL Rookie of the Year, Sergachev didn’t exit this season empty handed as he won OHL Most Outstanding Defenseman. Sergachev now joins Aaron Ekblad (2014), Ryan Ellis (2011) and Drew Doughty (2008) as the only three draft eligible defensemen to win this award in the past ten years. He’s in with great company if you ask me.
Sergachev has the strength, size, shot and defensive awareness to go along with his high offensive output this season (57 points in 67 games.) Although there is some debate as to the order the top three defensemen (Sergachev, Jakob Chychrun and Olli Juolevi) will go in, I am a firm believer that Sergachev’s skill set is impossible to ignore. He may take a couple years to develop before he cracks the Coyotes roster on a full time basis, but with defense being a weakness in their prospect pool, he will have every opportunity to succeed.
8. Buffalo Sabres – Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia (OHL)
Regarded as the best defenseman by a wide margin last season (and considered by many as a top three pick), Jakob Chychrun‘s past season lowered his stock by quite a margin. Chychrun plays a physical two-way game and has great foot speed to go along with good passing ability. It wasn’t the fact that Chychrun had a terrible season in 2015-16, but the elevated play of Sergachev and Juolevi have closed the gap significantly. Chychrun also has an NHL bloodline, as his father, Jeff Chychrun, was drafted in 1984 and went on to play 262 games in the NHL.
He also garners the lofty comparisons of Victor Hedman and Aaron Ekblad by some which may be a bit of an overstatement at this point but if he does turn out similar to either of these players than the Sabres will be overjoyed. With an embarrassment of riches in the young forwards department, the Sabres are setting up to be a huge threat at both ends of the rink in the coming years.
9. Montreal Canadiens – Logan Brown, C, Windsor (OHL)
With their highest draft pick since selecting Alex Galchenyuk third overall in 2012, the Canadiens will select Logan Brown ninth overall. In doing so, they forego the highly skilled (and undersized), Clayton Keller, the high scoring leader, Tyson Jost, and a player who some believe is the best overall defenseman in the draft, in Olli Juolevi. Regardless, the 6-foot-6-inch behemoth has shown that he can be a force offensively this season with 74 points in 59 games this season. During the regular season, Brown’s offensive contributions totaled a very respectable 29.2 percent of his team’s goal total and his points output translated to 32.9 NHLe points.
If you think you have heard “the Canadiens draft a big bodied, hard shooting American centerman” before, then no, you aren’t having an episode of deja vu. Back in 2013, the Canadiens selected Michael McCarron 25th overall, and his 2015-16 AHL rookie season was much better than most expect (as he made the AHL All-Star Game.) With Brown and McCarron both towering at 6-foot-6-inches, the Canadiens will have a very formidable top six in the future. Brown may not make an immediate impact for the Canadiens, but he will instantly be in the discussion as their top prospect. Look for him to take 2-3 years before contributing to the Canadiens on a full scale basis.
10. Colorado Avalanche – Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)
Colorado is set up front, Semyon Varlamov is in his prime and the only question mark in their roster is on the blueline. Olli Juolevi has played his way into the conversation for the top draft eligible defenseman this season as his play for the Finnish WJC team (who eventually won the tournament) is a huge part of that. With nine assists in seven games in the WJC this season, Juolevi earned a place on the WJC All-Star Team. His play for the London Knights (the eventual Memorial Cup Champions) has also turned heads this season, as Juolevi’s speed and passing ability have become apparent as he had 33 assists in 57 games.
Having drafted fellow countryman, Mikko Rantanen, last year, the Avalanche will hope that another tenth overall pick will excel similarly in his post draft year. Rantanen averaged over a point per game this season in the AHL. The Avs will have quite the Finnish pair in their prospect pool to look forward to.
11. New Jersey Devils – Clayton Keller, C, USNTDP Juniors (USHL)
Standing 5-foot-10-inches, Clayton Keller is on the smaller side but his skill and speed rank inside the top three of this draft. He racked up 104 points this season in the NTDP, second in league history only to Matthew’s point total last year (of 116 points), and has committed to Boston University next year.
12. Ottawa Senators – Tyson Jost, LW/C, Penticton (BCHL)
Tyson Jost completely dominated the BCHL this past season (with 104 points in 48 games.) Many critics thought his stats were inflated by playing in a less competitive BCHL league, but he quickly squashed those opinions by an extremely impressive U18 showing for Canada. He walked away with the most points in the tournament and was named the best forward of the tournament. Jost has committed to University of North Dakota for next season.
13. Carolina Hurricanes – Kieffer Bellows, LW/C, USNTDP Juniors (USHL)
Kieffer Bellows plays aggressively as a power forward, but also has great hands, an above average shot and is quick on his skates. He has showed his dominance in the USHL and USDP this season and will bring his talents to Boston University next season to joing teammate Clayton Keller.
14. Boston Bruins – Luke Kunin, C, University of Wisconsin (NCAA)
Boston takes the highly-skilled Luke Kunin with the 14th overall pick. His freshman season for the University of Wisconsin went very well as he averaged nearly a point per game and seen his draft stock soar.
15. Minnesota Wild – Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston University (NCAA)
Although Charlie McAvoy failed to register a point in seven WJC games this winter with team USA, he still managed to put up a very respectable season for Boston University (as their youngest defenseman) and earn a spot on the NCAA (Hockey East) All-Rookie Team. He is known mostly for his skating, hockey IQ, defensive awareness and physical aspect.
16. Detroit Red Wings – Jake Bean, D, Calgary (WHL)
Jake Bean is the prototypical offensive defenseman. He is quick on his skates, an excellent passer and has a bullet of a shot (which helped him lead the WHL in goals by a defenseman this past season.) He is slightly smaller than the average defenseman and will need to work on the defensive side of the game but he could be looked upon as a steal in the coming years.
17. Nashville Predators – Julien Gauthier, RW, Val D’Or (QMJHL)
Julien Gauthier really showed his conditioning was top notch at the NHL Draft Combine and having notched 41 goals in 54 games this past year, we can state that he is projected as a big goal scoring winger.
18. Philadelphia Flyers – Michael McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
Michael McLeod is a speedster who may have been slightly overshadowed this past season as his linemate, Alexander Nylander, really stole the show in Mississauga. The Flyers have one of the best defensive prospect pools in the league so adding McLeod will do wonders to replenishing their forward prospect pool.
19. New York Islanders – German Rubstov, C, Team Russia U18 (MHL)
The Islanders will take a risk on German Rubstov at number 19. Rubstov is another player who has seen his draft stock plummet this past season as he hasn’t performed as expected in the MHL. Rubstov doesn’t stand out in any specific area, but he does a little bit of everything.
20. Arizona Coyotes – Tage Thompson, C/RW, University of Connecticut (NCAA)
Tage Thompson is one of the older prospects on this list and another first rounder who has above average size, as he stands at 6-foot-5-inches. In the NCAA this past season he also averaged nearly a point per game and really showcased one of his best abilities in his shot.
21. Carolina Hurricanes – Dante Fabbro, D, Penticton (BCHL)
Dante Fabbro had a similar problem to Tyson Jost this past season as he also played in the BCHL and many scouts viewed this as a deterrent, but again a stellar U18s put an end to a lot of the scouts’ worries. Fabbro is viewed overall as a complete defenseman to the mold of Tyson Barrie (as per Elite Prospects).
22. Winnipeg Jets – Tyler Benson, LW, Vancouver (WHL)
Tyler Benson was another player who was viewed as a lock to get taken in the top ten just a year ago, as he has represented Canada internationally on a number of occasions, but two separate injuries limited Bensen’s ability to maintain his draft stock. He is viewed as a scoring power forward, who brings a lot of energy to the table every game.
23. Florida Panthers – Rasmus Asplund, LW/C, Farjestad (SHL)
Rasmus Asplund is known for his quick foot speed and was the captain for Team Sweden in this past year’s Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournament. He put up 12 points in 46 games in the top tier men’s Swedish league this past season and did not look out of place as many 17-year-olds do.
24. Anaheim Ducks – Jonathan Dahlen, LW/C, Timra (Allsvenskan)
Jonathan Dahlen‘s NHLe of 37.3 ranks as the fifth best of this years draft eligible prospects. This is largely due to the league that he plays in, but the fact that he produced the most points in his team is no small feat. Dahlen seems to be able to create his own offense where many couldn’t, and then use another one of his greater assets, his shot, to finish a play.
25. Dallas Stars – Vitali Abramov, LW/RW, Gatineau (QMJHL)
Vitali Abramov, the undersized, but versatile winger has really showed that his main strength is his offense this past season. Standing at 5-foot-9-inches and weighing in at 175 pounds, it is apparent that Abramov has the numbers stacked against him, but the Stars take a chance on him at 25th regardless.
26. Washington Capitals – Carl Grundstrom, LW, MODO (SHL)
Carl Grundstrom is an aggressive and punishing forward who is quick on his skates. He has been playing in the top tier Swedish League this past season (SHL) and for Sweden in the WJC. His play in the SHL and the WJC has turned the heads of many scouts.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning – Alex DeBrincat, C, Erie (OHL)
Alex DeBrincat could be the absolute steal of the draft this late in the first round. He is very small at 5-foot-7-inches. Had he been 3-4 inches taller, he would be a definite top-10 selection. His offense is eye-popping and the Lightning may well get another undersized gem in the 2016 draft.
28. St. Louis Blues – Cam Dineen, D, North Bay (OHL)
Cam Dineen is another high flying offensive defenseman. He anticipates plays in the offensive zone, he’s a great passer and seems to be able to create his own offensive. He is slightly undersized and may take a few years to develop, but the Blues may have found a replacement for Kevin Shattenkirk.
29. Boston Bruins – Max Jones, LW, London (OHL)
Max Jones plays on the edge (as apparent by a 12-game suspension this past season) and projects as a huge power forward in the NHL. He wasn’t able to produce a ton of points on the offensive juggernaut, London Knights, this past season either.
30. Anaheim Ducks – Nathan Bastian, C/RW, Mississauga (OHL)
The third Steelhead selected in the first round this season, Nathan Bastian is by far the biggest of the trio. Standing at 6’5, he can play an aggressive, grinding game, while using his size to win battles. His skill level may not be as high as the other two Steelheads in the draft, but it shouldn’t be underestimated.
Steal of the Draft: Alex DeBrincat
TDA – The Draft Analyst
McKeen’s – McKeen’s Hockey
THW – The Hockey Writers, The War Room
HP – Hockey Prospect
ISS – ISSHockey
C.P. – Corey Pronman
THN – The Hockey News
C.B. – Craig Button
HPs – Hockey Prospectus
FC – Future Considerations
Dob – Dobber Hockey
NACS – NA Central Scouting
All Rankings are updated as of June 12, 2016