by Blain Potvin, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
HALIFAX, NS. — The Draft Lottery is complete. We now know that the Montreal Canadiens will be selecting ninth in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. This means the dream of having an instant top-six forward is dashed. However, this doesn’t mean that Montreal will not get a quality player.
The difference is that the player selected at ninth will take a season or two before he is NHL-ready. Looking back at the most recent drafts, we see quality young players such as Timo Meier, Nikolai Ehlers, Jacob Trouba and Bo Horvat all selected as the ninth overall selection. The examples highlight the raw talent but also the patience required to develop that talent.
Using a complex and highly guarded algorithm I developed, with data from the seven top independent major scouting firms (and several tarot card readings), we can make an educated guess at how the first round of the draft will play out. We’ll assume that each team will keep their picks and select the best player available. Using this list we should get to know the players that are the likeliest selections for Montreal at ninth.
1. Auston Matthews (C)
2. Patrik Laine (LW)
3. Jesse Puljujarvi (RW)
4. Matthew Tkachuk (LW)
5. Pierre-Luc Dubois (LW)
6. Alexander Nylander (RW)
7. Jakob Chychrun (D)
8. Mikhail Sergachev (D)
9. Olli Juolevi (D)
10. Tyson Jost (C)
11. Clayton Keller (C)
12. Logan Brown (C)
13. Michael McLeod (C)
14. Jake Bean (D)
15. Charlie McAvoy (D)
As the draft approaches, you will read comprehensive player profiles here on All Habs Hockey Magazine such as one written by my colleague on sniper Clayton Keller. But to get you started, let me give you an overview of the players available to understand the value of this pick.
Tyson Jost, C, Penticton (BCHL)
5-11, 191 lbs., Shoots L, Canada | @josty_17
2015-’16: 48 GP, 42 G, 62 A, 104 PTS (Penticton Vees)CSB: No. 14 | ISS: No. 18 | THN: No. 11 | HP: No. 10 | FC: No. 13
Tyson Jost has a motor that never stops. He has elite skating ability and makes plays at top speed. His hockey IQ is off the charts creating plays for his teammates and is a constant scoring threat. Jost set a new scoring record at the IIHF U18 World Championships (U18’s) breaking Connor McDavid’s record.
Players of his offensive ability and age usually suffer from defensive lapses, however Jost excels without the puck. He pursues the puck as a lion would to its prey, to regain possession and relaunch the offensive attack. Jost boasts natural leadership abilities, acting as captain of his club team the Penticton Vees of the BCHL and of the U18 Team Canada.
Jost is impeded by average size and can be outmuscled at times. This could also cause him to be more prone to injuries at the NHL level if he cannot add some size and strength. Time can be on his side in this task as he is committed to the University of North Dakota, the defending NCAA National Champions. He still projects as a top six center at the NHL level in a similar playing style as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Edmonton Oilers.
Logan Brown, C, Windsor (OHL)
6-6, 222 lbs., Shoots L, United States | @21LBrown
2015-’16: 59 GP, 21 G, 53 A, 74 PTS (Windsor Spitfires)CSB: No. 7 | ISS: No. 11 | THN: No. 15 | HP: No. 10 | FC: No. 13
Next up is Logan Brown. Yes, Clayton Keller is ranked higher in the matrix (check out Chris Nardella’s report on Keller), however, Brown has similar offensive numbers and an intangible that Marc Bergevin covets, size. At 6-foot-6-inches, 225 pounds, Brown has the size to compete in the NHL. He uses that size to his advantage to gain and retain puck position. Brown is very effective in puck battles down low and along the boards.
Brown is a deceptively fast skater with a smooth skating stride. He also loves to go to the front of the net and disrupt opposing defensemen and goaltenders. Brown owns an accurate and heavy shot with a quick release, one he uses quite effectively in tight quarters. He also has a highly underrated playmaking ability that distributes the puck well to his teammates and uses his physical tools to create the space they need to produce.
Brown’s defensive abilities have progressed well. His positioning and awareness in the defensive zone is excellent. Any error is adeptly repaired by use of his active stick and very long reach. As the son of former NHL’er Jeff Brown, he has the pedigree. He has seen and can benefit from the experience of his father and understands what it takes to be a pro.
Brown projects as a David Backes-styled centreman who plays a defensively responsible power forward game on a second line. Keeping in mind Bergevin’s penchant for big bodies down the middle, one can only look at these numbers to understand why Brown would be in his sights at ninth; Alex Galchenyuk (6-foot-2-inches), Logan Brown (6-foot-6-inches), Mike McCarron (6-foot-6-inches)
Mikhail Sergachev, D, Windsor (OHL)
6-2, 205 lbs., Shoots L, Russia | @sergachev31
2015-’16: 67 GP, 17 G, 40 A, 57 PTS (Windsor Spitfires)CSB: No. 8 | ISS: No. 8 | THN: No. 9 | HP: No. 8 | FC: No. 8
Moving onto the top available defensemen, we begin with Mikhail Sergachev, a defenseman who has completed his first season in North America. He played heavy minutes in all situations while playing for Windsor of the OHL. He has proven that he can be a dominant two-way defenseman who makes the right choices with the puck as he was named the 2016 OHL Top Defenceman.
Sergachev is also very creative in generating offence with an excellent vision and high hockey IQ. His skating is smooth and fluid. He can beat forwards with speed and his lateral mobility is effortless. He does like to hunt for the big hit and can be taken out of position when he does.
His defensive awareness and positioning is also a work in progress, but it saw drastic improvement over the course of his rookie season as became accustomed to the smaller ice surfaces. While in the OHL his skating ability has allowed him to get back into position quickly, this may likely not as often be the case when he reaches the NHL so his decision making will need to improve. This is a skill that will come with time and coaching. He projects as a top pairing defenseman and his skill set is a blend of Andrei Markov’s skating and two-way acumen mixed with Alexei Emelin’s physicality.
Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)
6-2, 179 lbs., Shoots L, Finland | @ollijuolevi
2015-’16: 57 GP, 9 G, 33 A, 42 PTS (London Knights)CSB: No. 5 | ISS: No. 10 | THN: No. 9 | HP: No. 7 | FC: No. 12
Fittingly we finish off with Finnish product Olli Juolevi, who is well rounded blueliner. He is highly athletic, mobile and competitive. He is capable of playing physical when required, yet can get out-muscled in the dirty areas by large forwards. He has a hard and accurate shot and often chooses to use his wrist shot from the point to generate rebounds.
Juolevi’s main weapons are his playmaking ability and puck possession play. Using his elite skating and vision, he generates offence on the transition and can alertly backcheck swiftly. His positional play and awareness in the defensive zone make him hard to play against. This skill has improved under the guidance of Dale Hunter in London. He has trouble handling quicker forwards in his end. This skill will develop in time as he gains experience and strength. Juolevi does have top pairing potential and his playing style has been favorably compared to Olli Maatta of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
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At the end of this draft, assuming Marc Bergevin keeps the pick, this would add a quality player that can be added to the team’s core. Will any player slide down the list? It is possible, and will that player be higher on Trevor Timmins‘ list? We shall see at the 2016 NHL Draft in Buffalo. Perhaps this player will add quality depth while on their entry level contract and perhaps this player can displace an older player that is considered a core member of the team. While this season’s collapse was painful, the optimist in us can see this as a small step back to take two giant steps forward.