by Michael Ham-Fan, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine

 

MONTREAL, QC. – With the Montreal Canadiens clinching a playoff spot with the win against the Panthers on Saturday, it would be interesting to examine closely the potential opponents they may face in the first round.

Washington Capitals  

Habs record against the Capitals this season: 2-0-0

What to expect: The Washington Capitals matchup is a dangerous one. The Capitals are a brand new team this season under coach Barry Trotz. They are a puck possession team that works very hard. In both games that the Canadiens played against the Capitals this season, an overtime period was needed to determine the winner. The most recent win, was a 1-0 shutout in Montreal, where Carey Price made 36 saves. Being present at that game, I remember that Washington played a very hermetic game and dominated puck possession. That game was one of the many that Price stole this season.

One of Trotz’ main success is being able to include Alex Ovechkin in his defensive system, while still maintaining the offensive production from the Capitals’ captain.

If the Canadiens draw the Capitals, expect a very tight and defensive series with long overtime periods.

Key threats on the Capitals:

Alex Ovechkin: Looking at Ovechkin’s stats, you see the usual 50-goal-season and his point per game pace, but what you can’t see is his effort level under new coach Barry Trotz. The ex-Predators coach has turned Ovechkin into a player that gives his best on both ends of the ice, something that was never seen from The Great Eight. Alex Ovechkin has had a very good career so far, but the 29-year-old has never made it to the Conference Finals just yet. He looks focused to do so this year, and I wouldn’t want to draw Ovechkin in the first round. The winger has 61 points in 58 playoff games.

Nicklas Backstrom: Backstrom is probably having the quietest elite season in the entire NHL. He currently leads the league in assists with 55, and he is fifth in points. He forms a deadly duo with Ovechkin, and they both have been productive in the post-season. Backstrom has 43 points in 57 playoff games.

Capitals defense: The Capitals defense is a very underrated one. They rarely get media coverage, but they get the job done. All six of their top defenceman have a positive plus/minus rating, even the notorious risky offensive defenceman Mike Green is at plus-12. The most impressive player on their defensive squad has been John Carlson. The 25-year-old defenceman is playing to his potential and has recorded 48 points in 76 games, ranking him seventh in defencemen scoring, all while playing a sound defensive game.

 

Ottawa Senators

Habs record against the Senators this season: 1-3-0

What to expect : This is by far the worst possible matchup for the Montreal Canadiens. The Canadiens are generally outmatched when they play Ottawa. The Canadiens are a fast team, but against Ottawa, they do not have a speed advantage on them. On top of that, Ottawa has a very big and physical blue-line that gives the Habs’ smaller forwards a hard time.

Although the Habs have a slightly different team from the 2012 playoffs, the core is still the same and Ottawa had no trouble in eliminating Montreal in five games. For some reason, the Canadiens let the Senators have a lot of scoring chances and even a career-year Carey Price can’t stop them all.

Key threats on the Senators:

Jean-Gabriel Pageau : Although I could probably list the whole Sens team here, Jean-Gabriel Pageau has been a Habs-killer. He is always a big threat against the Canadiens and as a matter of fact, Pageau has four points and nine shots against the Canadiens this season. Habs fans will also remember him for his hat trick against the Canadiens in the playoffs of 2012. Pageau is a small speedy forward that has good balance and that is most dangerous off the rush.

Mika Zibanejad: With 43 points in 73 games, this is a breakout season for Zibanejad. After playing a big role in eliminating the Canadiens in 2012, the 21-year-old Swede of Iranian descent has developed into a very good two-way player. He has very good play-making abilities and always seems like a dangerous player against the Montreal Canadiens.

 

Detroit Red Wings

Habs record against the Red Wings this season: 3-0-0

What to expect: The Detroit Red Wings and the Montreal Canadiens are two very similar teams in terms of player personnel. They both have a team based on speed and hard work. None of them are especially big or physical as they both rely on a strict system and good teamwork.

The Habs have won all three duels against the Red Wings and have looked confident doing so. If the Habs were to face the Red Wings in the first round, I would expect an honest battle between two teams that can really skate. I like this matchup for the Canadiens because I consider them to have an edge in goaltending in an otherwise very equal matchup. Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek have not played very well this season, and I like the prospect of Carey Price going against one of them.

Key threats on the Red Wings:

Henrik Zetterberg: The 34-year-old veteran is always a threat when games count. A Conn Smythe winner in 2008, Zetterberg has 116 points in 125 playoff games. His clutch goal-scoring ability has been as reliable as they come for the Red Wings throughout the years and he is still their main leader.

Tomas Tatar: Tomas Tatar has been one of the most consistent players on the Red Wings team this season. A 2nd-round pick back in 2009, he was groomed into the Detroit mould. He has tallied 54 points in 75 games this season, while maintaining a plus/minus rating of plus-7, only Pavel Datsyuk has a better ratio than Tatar amongst the Red Wings’ forwards. Tatar is a player that shines through his hard work and his raw offensive skills.

Coaching: As the hockey world knows, Mike Babcock is an excellent coach that knows his players well and knows how to use them optimally in order to get the best out of them. A Babcock-coached team is always a dangerous one.

 

Boston Bruins

Habs record against the Bruins this season: 4-0-0

What to expect: First, if you are expecting an easy series if we go against Boston, you are most probably writing them off too soon. Boston has been struggling to stay alive all season and hasn’t played at their usual level of play, partly due to injuries, but they are a very experienced playoffs team, having made the playoffs every single year with Claude Julien at the helm. Since 2007, they have made it to the second round three times, and to the final twice, winning a Stanley Cup in 2011.

One thing that is true, is that the Canadiens matchup well against the Bruins. The Canadiens’ speed is very troublesome for a Bruins line-up that isn’t made to play at that pace. That said, part of the reason why the Canadiens have been having success against the Bruins is that Montreal has been a very confident team playing against Boston. They often play beyond their capacities when they face the Bruins.

Tuukka Rask, one of the best goaltenders in the league, has somehow not been able to beat the Habs on a consistent basis. In fact, his career record against Montreal is 3-13-3. Considering that they are heated rivals, this is a very surprising statistic, although this could be interpreted as incentive for Rask to play better to silence his critics and thus making him very hard to beat.

I am lukewarm towards this playoffs matchup. In a way, I want the Habs to face the Bruins, but it would be a very hard task to face them in the first round. The Bruins will have an underdog mentality, and they still have a very good team despite what people have been saying.

Key threats on the Bruins:

Patrice Bergeron: Bergeron can do it all in the playoffs: kill penalties, win face-offs, score clutch goals, set up plays, finish plays and play as a shutdown center. He is the Bruins heart and soul and he will be the player to watch for if the Canadiens play against the Bruins.

David Pastrnak and Ryan Spooner: Both are rookies that joined the Bruins late in the season, but they have been key contributors on offense ever since they did. Pastrnak is 18 years old and has 10 goals and 25 points in 40 games, while Spooner is 22 years old and has put up 15 points in 23 games. They have brought some youth and some life to the Bruins slumping offense. They are one of the main reasons that the Bruins are still in place for a playoffs spot and have given some extra speed to the Bruins lineup.

 

Florida Panthers

Habs record against the Panthers this season: 3-0-1

What to expect : This is the matchup, although an unlikely one, that would be the ideal of the Canadiens, in my opinion. The Panthers play a style that is very similar to the Habs one, partly because ex-Canadiens assistant head coach Gerard Gallant is now their head coach. While they play a similar style, they have different personnel on the ice. They plan their game based on their goaltending, as Carey Price and Roberto Luongo are definitely two elite goaltenders. Aside from that, I give the Canadiens the advantage in the other categories.

Montreal has better forward and defensive depth than Florida. Also, aside from well-seasoned veteran Jaromir Jagr, the Panthers’ key players have almost no playoff experience. Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad, Aleksander Barkov and Brandon Pirri would all be playing in their first post-season, and the Bell Centre is far from easy to adapt when you don’t have the playoff experience. That said, I do believe that if they make it, Jagr’s experience will be very beneficial to them.

Key threats on the Panthers:

Momentum: I say that it is the ideal matchup, but I also understand that if they were to make the playoffs, they would have to be on a big winning streak coming in and they would have momentum on their side.

Roberto Luongo: Luongo is, in my opinion, the biggest reason why the Panthers are in the playoffs race. He has been nothing but stellar for them since their first game and he has caused trouble to the Habs during the regular season, as the Panthers brought the Canadiens to overtime three times. Although, some doubt Luongo’s ability to win games in the post-season, I do not think that he will be the reason his team would lose. On the contrary, Luongo is the player that gives Florida a legit chance at going deeper in the playoffs.

 

Summary

To sum up, although the regular season is at times not representative of the playoffs, the Habs have had success against most of their potential first-round opponents aside from the Senators. Ottawa represents the toughest task for the Habs as they don’t match up well with their speed and grit. There are obviously no easy matchups in the playoffs and all the previously analyzed teams could very well pull off a series win against Montreal, but if they can sneak into a Wild Card spot, the Florida Panthers would be, in my opinion, the best matchup for the Canadiens.

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Sources:

NHL.com
HockeyDB.com
DailyFaceoff.com