by Blain Potvin, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
Alex Galchenyuk, the third overall selection in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, was the first player selected by the Montreal Canadiens in the Marc Bergevin era. When Galchenyuk was selected, the hope was that Bergevin had finally drafted a big talented centre that had been missing from the Montreal roster since Vincent Damphousse was traded to the San Jose Sharks in March 1999.
Galchenyuk returned to the OHL during the NHL lockout and dominated there. Once the shortened NHL season commenced in January 2013, Galchenyuk cracked the Habs roster as an 18 year old to begin his NHL career. He was the first 18-year-old to accomplish that with the Canadiens since Petr Svoboda in 1984.
Over his four seasons in the NHL, Galchenyuk has made progress in each one. Despite this, it has been a struggle for Alex to gain Michel Therrien’s trust to play his natural position of centre. Meanwhile, the coach preaches defensive awareness as his main concern.
This past season, Galchenyuk was finally handed an opportunity when the coach’s favorite centre, David Desharnais, was injured with a broken foot. Galchenyuk used this opportunity to audition for the number one centre position being afforded some forgiveness of his errors as the head coach lacked options.
Galchenyuk did not disappoint. In his 17 games as the number one centre to end the season, Galchenyuk scored 11 goals and six assists showing excellent chemistry with Captain Max Pacioretty. When Brendan Gallagher returned from injury, the trio formed a true top line not seen in Montreal in many years.
Alex Galchenyuk is coming off of a breakout season where he scored 30 goals and 26 assists while averaging only 16:16 of ice time per game. He is also entering the final year of his two-year $5.6 million bridge contract where he is scheduled to be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent on July 1, 2017. Re-signing Galchenyuk should be Marc Bergevin’s main priority this coming season.
Comparables
Two young centremen of comparable age, skill and production to Galchenyuk were signed to long term deals by their respective club teams on July 8th. Do their contracts provide a roadmap for both management and player to help set the value of Galchenyuk’s deal?
This first comparable is Nathan MacKinnon. The Avalanche forward was taken first overall in 2013, just one year after Galchenyuk’s draft. MacKinnon completed third NHL season with his production at a similar rate to Galchenyuk. Like the Montreal forward, MacKinnon has also been used as both a centre and a winger.
MacKinnon had shown enough promise for Colorado to identify him as a core player for the franchise. The Avalanche signed him to a 7-year, $44.1 million extension ($6.3M AAV) following his entry level contract. This extension includes a modified no-trade clause beginning in the 2020-’21 season. This past season, MacKinnon scored 21 goals and 31 assists for 52 points with an average ice-time of 18:52, two minutes and a half minutes per game more than Galchenyuk.
The second comparable is Mark Scheifele. The former seventh overall selection of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft is one year older than Galchenyuk. His progression was slightly slower than Galchenyuk’s as he played two more seasons in the OHL before he was able to break into the NHL full time.
While Scheifele’s production has been similar to Galchenyuk’s over the same time period, his usage has been almost exclusively as a centre, cementing himself in the Winnipeg top-six over the last two seasons. This past season he scored 29 goals and 32 assists for 62 points while averaging 18:32 of icetime per game. Like MacKinnon, Scheifele logged at least two minutes per game more than Galchenyuk.
Jets management showed Scheifele that he is a core player as they signed him to an eight year, $49 million contract extension ($6.125M AAV) with a modified no-trade clause beginning in the 2020-’21 season. Like MacKinnon, Scheifele’s new deal immediately follows his entry level contract.
Taking into account these two comparables, a long term deal around six million dollars seems reasonable for Galchenyuk. But what do Canadiens’ fans feel?
What is the most likely contract that Galchenyuk will sign with #Habs after this season?
— Blain (@Potsy_70) July 8, 2016
Let me acknowledge that the poll isn’t scientific and the results aren’t clean to interpret because dollars and term were mixed. Having said that, it’s obvious that most fans want to see the Canadiens sign their young centre to a long-term deal. Rightfully so, given the progress that Galchenyuk has made these last four seasons.
After such a volatile summer, wouldn’t it go a long way towards “stability” for Bergevin to lock up a popular, young player to a reasonable long-term contract. Looking at the deals signed by Scheifele and MacKinnon, it would not be unreasonable to expect a deal in the neighborhood of six years with a cap hit hovering around six million dollars. However, given the previous bridge contract, buying additional unrestricted free agent eligible years may cost Bergevin more money.
Locking up a core player coming into his prime to a long term contract would allow for the cap certainty that will be needed in the coming years. Bergevin and his team can then begin the planning necessary to re-sign key players such as Max Pacioretty and Carey Price.