by Jordan Lambe, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
BAIE VERTE, NL. — As true hockey fans know, there isn’t really an off-season. At All Habs Hockey Magazine we have been proud to bring you fresh, original content each and every day of the summer. And you, our readers, have responded in record numbers to grab your news and analysis and to share your opinions.
But as the summer comes to a close and the kids get ready to go back to school, it can only mean one thing: we are about to return to the tradition of being glued to the TV cheering on our favorite team. In addition, for anyone who participates in fantasy hockey leagues, preparing for the draft is one of many exciting points of the season.
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First up is the category of players that every fantasy manager wishes to avoid, for it can turn a high draft pick, who is expected to be a cornerstone of your fantasy team, into a waiver wire option. For the purpose of this article, a fantasy bust is considered to be any player who enters the the season with very high expectations (and a high fantasy ranking) but does not come close to fulfilling them. Whether it be from an exceeding successful single season, a high shooting percentage, or a young player with a lot of potential, there are a number of reasons that a player can be over hyped heading into a season. So here are my picks for the players you should taper expectations for, as they will “bust” your fantasy lineup this upcoming season if drafted too high.
LEFT WING
Nick Foligno
With the Blue Jackets having such terrible luck with injuries last year (losing the most man games in the NHL with 508, according to www.mangameslost.com), Foligno was given an opportunity to step up and play more minutes (averaging 2:43 more over the 2013-2014 season.) Not only did these extra minutes come on the top line with Ryan Johansen, he was also a fixture on the power play and collected a whopping 73 points and 26 power play points (20 more PPP than his previous season.)
The acquisition of Brandon Saad, and possibly a healthy Scott Hartnell and Brandon Dubinsky, will most likely make regular time on the top line and power play time much harder to come by for Foligno. Add to this the fact that if Foligno’s shooting percentage drops from an unrealistic 17.0 per cent, to his career average of 12.4 per cent, he will see a dip in his goal production by eight goals (this is of course assuming he again matches his career high of 182 shots in a season again next year.)
My prediction: Foligno will regress from a top-50 fantasy contributor to a fringe fantasy player, falling back to about 20 goals and about 45-50 points. Contribution in the Hits and PIM categories help Foligno stay on the radar for leagues that include these, placing my target for him in rounds 8-9.
CENTRE
Joe Thornton
Having just turned 36, “Jumbo Joe” has finally started to see his production decline. Last season Thornton recorded 65 points, his lowest point production since the 1999-2000 season (minus the lockout shortened season of 2012-2013, in which he was projected to have about 68 points over 82 games.) Couple that with a San Jose Sharks team that hasn’t nearly been as dominant in the regular season as they once were and Thornton could see his fantasy value dip even more.
Although his production took a slight dive last year, Thornton remained an integral part of the Sharks’ offense as he lead the team in Corsi For Percentage of Total with a staggering 58.3 per cent. This is a sure sign that the Sharks rely on Thornton heavily for their offense (which is no surprise to anyone), but how much longer can Thornton bear this weight on his shoulders? My guess is not much longer.
My prediction: Thornton will remain a major part of the Sharks offense, but with a struggling team around him, he will still see his production drop to 13-14 goals and about 55 points. Combining this with the fact that Thornton isn’t a high volume shot taker, PIM producer or hitter (although he does win faceoffs) makes him a much less enticing pick than he was in the past, target him in rounds 9-10.
RIGHT WING
Jiri Hudler
Hudler has been placed very high on some pre-draft rankings (such as 42nd on The Hockey News’ Top-200). Although he is also LW eligible according to Yahoo Fantasy, this still blows my mind. Hudler does have very good line mates, Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau (who narrowly missed this list) but with a shooting percentage of 4.5 per cent better than his career average, we can expect to see a dip from the 31 goals he scored last year.
Say, for example, Hudler’s shooting percentage dropped from 19.6 per cent to his career average of 15.1, and he again manages to tie a career high of 158 shots per season, his goal total will plummet to about 24. Adding to that fact, the 2014-2015 season was the only time Hudler has eclipsed his former career high of 57 points in an an NHL season (with 76 points.)
My prediction: Hudler’s production will normalize and he will score 20-25 goals and about 60 points; still a solid fantasy contributor but should be regarded as more of a late round pick (rounds 7-8) as he isn’t a huge help in the PIM, Shots, Hits, or power play points categories.
DEFENSE
Dennis Wideman
An easy pick here would’ve been Zdeno Chara, but I doubt many people will target him until very late in their draft anyway (oh, how the mighty have fallen.) Wideman will be 32 years old when the regular season starts and while age isn’t a major factor, the fact he had a career year last year sets off some red flags. As with other players on this list, his shooting percentage is higher than his career average (2.4 per cent) and this can attribute to about four extra goals this past year.
Wideman has only topped 45 points in a single season twice before his anomaly of 56 points last year, and with 350 points in 707 games played, he is closer to a 0.5 PPG player than the 0.7 PPG he had last season. Add to this equation that the Flames acquired Dougie Hamilton, and Wideman is now fighting with former partner, Kris Russell, for a top-4 position on the blue line. Hamilton will also challenge Wideman for power play minutes, so Wideman could also see a drop in his 21 PPP from last season.
My prediction: Wideman will take a step back in the 2015-2016 season, but is a solid bet to get 10 goals and 40 points. Mix this in with the fact that he does contribute in the SOG, Hits, and PIM categories, and I would target him in round 10 or later to help round out a top-4 fantasy blue line.
GOALTENDER
Tuuka Rask
The usual route here would be to pick one goalie of a recently formed tandem (ie. Kari Lehtonen/Antti Neimi or Jimmy Howard/Petr Mrazek or Brian Elliot/Jake Allen) and speculate why one will not win the starting job over another. I’ve decided against this and focusing on the top half of the goalie rankings, where the team starter is clear cut, but where he places verses his peers isn’t.
Last year Boston was far from the “Big Bad Bruins” Habs fans have grown to know and despise of, much to our glee. Up until last season, the Bruins were heralded for their suburb defensive play, and Tuuka Rask (ranked as the sixth best overall goalie this year by Yahoo Fantasy Sports) reaped the benefits, posting no less than a 0.929 save percentage and nothing higher than a 2.05 goals against average from the 2011-12 season to 2013-14 season.
The main core from those seasons has now diminished; Zdeno Chara is coming off a major knee injury and is slowing down at 38 years old and Johnny Boychuk, Dougie Hamilton and Milan Lucic are now wearing different jerseys. The Bruins are now “retooling” for the future, so it seems that the Bruins will be fighting for one of the last playoffs spots as the regular season unwinds.
My prediction: If we project the Bruins to be a team on the playoff bubble, this spells trouble for Rask’s fantasy value. If he posts similar numbers as he did this past season (34 wins, 2.30 goals against average, 0.922 save percentage and 3 shutouts) he will be much closer to the middle of the pack than a top-5 goalie. It’s near impossible to predict the rounds that goalies will get picked in, as it is very unpredictable and they get picked in bunches, but compared to his peers I would rank Rask between the 10-12th best fantasy goaltender.
Sources: war-on-ice.com , Yahoo Fantasy Sports , NHL.com and Elite Prospects