FEATURE | What Can Be Expected From Habs Defence, Goaltenders This NHL Season, A Player By Player Breakdown of the Montreal Canadiens
ROCKET SPORTS MEDIA — Pessimism or pie in the sky dreaming? Some fans expect the playoffs while others are calling for regression in the Canadiens’ level of play. What is realistic?
We looked at the forward group here, but now, in part two, expectations for the Canadiens defence and goaltending will be the focus.
Defence
Last season, the Canadiens finished 13th in the league in goals allowed and had a 13th ranked penalty-kill. Both were clear improvements over the previous season. These significant improvements can be directly attributed to the return of a healthy Carey Price and Shea Weber.
This summer, Marc Bergevin didn’t find a clear cut answer to who can play with Weber. The left side will be a defence by committee. Luke Richardson may be a busy coach year as he manages his pairings based on situation and match-ups.
Let’s look at the expectations for the defence, starting on the right side.
Shea Weber
Once Weber returned from missing 24 games due to injury, he played his steady, calculated style of shutdown defence while providing 14 goals and 33 points in 58 games. He provided quality leadership in a top pairing role. My expectation is that Weber will continue his high level of play producing about 50 points.
Jeff Petry
Over the last two seasons, Petry has demonstrated his true value, as a number three defender who can step into a larger role when required. He is a smooth-skating, puck-mover who can play a physical brand of hockey. Petry is coming off a career high in goals and points. For this coming season, I expect him to continue his high level of play but his production will take a dip to 40 points.
Noah Juulsen
Juulsen suffered an eye injury on November 19th against the Washington Capitals after getting struck twice in the face by a puck. Juulsen returned on December 11th to play four games with the Canadiens and three games with Laval. After just 21 games, his season was over. Juulsen recorded five points and a reliable 17 minutes per game for the Canadiens. This upcoming season, he will be in a battle to earn a regular spot. As a former first round selection who plays a steady, physical defensive game with great mobility, he should have the inside track. He will be expected to provide solid defensive play and help the transition game on a third pairing.
Victor Mete
The 21-year-old Mete enters his third NHL season still in search of his first NHL goal. To make up for his lack of size, the mobile defender relies on speed, body and stick positioning. In addition to being outmatched by big forwards, Mete’s weak shot hampers his offensive game. He registered 13 assists last year. Mete trained this summer to improve his shot. The expectations for him offensively are not high, however 20 points or more are needed from a player in his role.
Brett Kulak
Last season, Kulak started the season in Laval but was recalled to Montreal on November 22nd following Noah Juulsen’s injury. Kulak split his time pairing with Jordie Benn and to a lesser extent with Jeff Petry. With Petry, Kulak formed a solid duo controlling the play with a Corsi For Percentage of 58.10. It’s possible that a Kulak-Petry pairing returns this season. Kulak is a mobile defender who had a career season with 17 points in 57 games. His mobility and solid first pass helped the Habs transition game earning him a new three year deal. If he can continue to play a second pairing role and on the second wave of the power-play, expect him to reach 25 points.
Ben Chiarot
Chiarot was acquired by Bergevin in the off-season with the departure of Jordie Benn to help shore up the blueline. With an abundance of injuries on the Jets’ blueline last season, Chiarot found himself moved up to the second pair with Dustin Byfuglien. Chiarot is a stay-at-home style defenceman who plays a physical game. I expect him to reach 15 points this year, down slightly from his career high of 20 points last season. However, he was one of the better Jets penalty-killers last season and that’s where his value might be found.
Christian Folin
Acquired in the David Schlemko trade last season, the right-handed Folin was brought in as depth. Folin was able to provide physicality and steady defence on a third pairing in his 19 games with Montreal, enough to earn a one-year deal. He is expected to be the seventh or eighth defenceman in the Canadiens’ lineup.
Mike Reilly
Being a good skater with solid puck-moving abilities, it was hoped that Reilly could fill a second pairing role. In reality, Reilly’s lack of consistency cost him a full-time role on the Canadiens blue line despite being desperate for a left-handed, puck-mover. Fans shouldn’t expect anything more than a depth defenceman who can play occasionally. His 11 points in 57 games played was a career high, Barring injuries to the Habs blueline, Reilly is unlikely to top those totals this season.
Goaltenders
Carey Price
What really needs to be said about the team’s franchise player? When healthy, Price is one of the most dominant goaltenders in the world. Even when he is just his playing at his career average he is good enough to make a bad team look good. He still needs to have his workload managed to ensure he remains at the top of his game, but the expectations for Price is to continue his All-Star level of play this season finishing at about his career average of a .918 save percentage and around 2.75 goals against average.
Keith Kinkaid
While Kinkaid has shown he can handle the 20 to 30 games he would need to be called upon in Montreal, he didn’t have a good statistical season last year playing with a weak Devils team. In the other five of his six NHL seasons he has been able to hold a save percentage above .905, until last year when it dipped to .891. Signing a one-year deal points to this as being an experiment hoping for an upgrade over the play of Antti Niemi last year. A reasonable expectation for Kinkaid is to win 12 to 15 games out of the 25 to 30 played. He must also keep games close enough to win on those nights he starts. If he can’t, the leash must be kept short as Charlie Lindgren is waiting in the wings for his chance to prove he can fill the role.
Montreal Canadiens
It is my expectation that the Canadiens will regress offensively in their even strength production. Therefore the Habs power-play must become a threat to make a difference. Without the addition of a star player, a productive power-play would be the single largest measure to improve goal differential.
Fan expectations for the Habs this season have been elevated after last season’s leap forward. Management has placed faith in the players by not making any major changes to the roster. Will Bergevin’s gamble pay off? Will the players deliver? And will the Canadiens make a playoff appearance for their fans?
By Blain Potvin, Staff Writer.
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