By Stevo, AllHabs.net
MONTREAL, QC. — The big question that remains surrounding the Montreal Canadiens, is why general manager Pierre Gauthier has not yet inked defenseman Josh Gorges. In a recent column, I mentioned that I expected Josh Gorges would sign with the Canadiens prior to his arbitration hearing on July 28, and that he would sign a contract roughly at 3 years/$10M. I’m no longer all that sure this is going to be the case.
As the days go by, and as we approach the arbitration hearing, it appears to be that Pierre Gauthier and Josh Gorges (who is represented by agent Kevin Epp) are somewhat far apart in this negotiation. Call that an assumption on my part, but nobody predicted the signing would take this long, but rest assured, it will happen.
How did we get here anyway? Josh Gorges became a restricted free agent after his contract came to an end this season. The Canadiens had to extend a qualifying offer (100 per cent of last season’s salary) to Josh Gorges in order to retain his rights, and they did so offering Gorges a $1.3M contract, for one season. Gorges rejected this offer on July 5 (deadline for qualifying offers), but because the Canadiens had made this qualifying offer, they retained Gorges’ rights, and this gives them the ability to continue to negotiate with him up until the arbitration hearing, scheduled for July 28.
If Gorges is still not signed by this hearing, both he and Pierre Gauthier will make their case before a neutral arbitrator, and will each propose a salary for the upcoming season. The arbitrator will then have 48 hours to decide on the amount of the salary.
I was quite amused today, when I read an article at danslescoulisses.com making a huge (it wasn’t huge at all) comparison between Josh Gorges and Shane O’Brien, who recently signed a one-year, $1.1M contract with the Colorado Avalanche. In a nutshell, the article demonstrates how both players have very similar career stats, and they do.
The fundamental flaw is in it’s conclusion, and I quote (French):
“Comment un joueur dont les droits appartiennent toujours à une équipe (RFA) pourrait-il obtenir un salaire de 4 millions $ si un autre joueur possédant des statistiques presque identiques, libre comme l’air (UFA), vient de signer un contrat de 1,1 million $?
Surtout que Gorges ne peut pas dire qu’il distribue plus de mises en échec et qu’il dérange davantage l’adversaire que O’Brien car ce n’est pas le cas!
Poser la question, c’est y répondre!
Je suis certain que la direction du Canadien a bien aimé la signature de O’Brien, hier.
Si j’étais l’arbitre qui allait devoir trancher dans le cas de Gorges, je ne pourrais pas fermer les yeux sur la récente entente entre O’Brien et l’Avalanche…”
Let me translate:
How can a restricted free agent [Gorges] obtain $4M, if another player with almost identical career stats, and who is an unrestricted free agent, just obtained $1.1M?
Especially since Gorges cannot say that he distributes more body checks, and annoys the adversary more than O’Brien.
To ask the question is to answer it!
I’m sure the Canadiens direction really liked the O’Brien signing.
If I were the arbitrator who would have to decide on this matter, I would not be able to close my eyes on the contract O’Brien just got with the Avalanche.
I guess most people would read this and think, “makes sense”. But it doesn’t. Here’s why, and you will understand very quickly when you see what can, and what cannot be used in arbitration:
What can be used in arbitration:
- Player’s career stats and performance.
- Injuries, illnesses, games played.
- Length of service with the team.
- Overall contribution to team’s success/failure.
- Player’s leadership abilities and public appeal.
- Performance/salary of a comparable player.
What can NOT be used in arbitration:
- Performance/salary of a comparable player, that signed as an unrestricted free agent.
- Testimonials, videos, and media reports.
- Financial state of the team.
- Salary cap and team’s payroll.
So in the end, their conclusion is incorrect, as the arbitrator cannot use the Shane O’Brien’s signing as a comparable, because O’Brien signed as an unrestricted free agent.
Funniest part of this whole story is that this article, on their site is located in a section called “Scoops from our sources”. They have great sources I see.
We do see however that Gorges stats, injury and length of service could play against him. Gorges is not known to produce many points. Actually, TSN recently released a stat that showed Josh Gorges was the worst NHL defenseman last season when it comes to putting the puck on the net. He basically missed the net last season, on 48.7% of his shots. (Scott Cullen added caveat that stay-at-home defensemen are often top this list as they try to maintain the zone more than taking a shot on net. Gorges certainly fits that description.) Granted, he only played 36 games, but it could be a stat used by Gauthier to plead his case.
His injury requiring knee surgery last season will also be used by Gauthier and should weigh quite heavily in the balance I would think.
Once the arbitrator determines the salary for next season, the team has the right to accept or walk away from the decision, meaning they can accept the arbitrator’s decision, or let Josh Gorges walk away an unrestricted free agent, which I don’t expect to happen at all.
I might be getting ahead of myself here but I’m starting to think that Pierre Gauthier knows very much what he is doing in Gorges’ case. He knows he is in a position of power, and he probably believes he will get a favorable decision before the arbitrator.
It begs to ask the question on whether Josh Gorges is in the Montreal Canadiens’ long term plans, or not? Think about it. The Canadiens have some good young defensemen both in the lineup and coming up. Currently in the lineup, there is P.K. Subban and Yannick Weber who are both only 22 years old. Many believe Alexei Yemelin (The Gremlin from the Kremlin) will also be in the lineup next season, he happens to be 25. 2010 first round pick Jarred Tinordi is only one-year away from NHL readiness according to some. (Let me remind you he’s 6’7″, and listed at 212 lbs.) I could go on with guys like Diaz, Nash, first round pick this season Beaulieu, and the other 79 defensemen drafted this season. (Slight exaggeration)
All of this said, I believe there are a lot of question marks surrounding Josh Gorges within the Canadiens direction, questions that perhaps were not there before his injury, but it is what it is. I also believe Gauthier wants to keep his options open with so many young defensemen in the organization, and doesn’t want to commit to long-term contracts.
In all fairness to Pierre Gauthier, in his position, would you sign two defensemen to long term contracts, after they missed the majority of the previous season having their knee reconstructed? I wouldn’t.
(Photo: Andre Pichette)
I would think that Gauthier would want to sign Gorges to a shorter contract given the injury.
Inevitably, he can’t sign everyone or even half his guys to long term deals just for the fact that someone (like Yemelin, Tinordi, Beaulieu..etc) turn out to be ready for prime time soon and are able to fill an important role.
I’d say it’s a delicate dance to decide who you’re signing long term. Personally, I’ve loved what Josh brings to the team. But at the same time, injuries should warrant caution. And you’re always looking for “the next guy” in the prospects.
We shall see. ;-)
Habs with this management will be terrible for a long time, mediocre at best We trade like fools draft terribly, ie Gomez We are so inept we trade for and sign as free agents third and fourth line players, we cant even develop our own players there..HABS Have Another Brutal Season..
You are Showey from the next post.
Most Habs fans agree with Shiram, we take a poll and find out 72% of Montreal fans want changes in the upper management of this organization. I cant stand when we trade first and second rounders for players we let go after One Season, or ship out Grabovski for nothing.
I disagree with shiram. Grabovski was traded for Pateryn, and i am very pleased with Gauthier’s moves and Timmons seems to have drafted fine in past several years.
You are Shiram from the previous post.
Interestingly put Steve. I have a tendancy to agree with you regarding Gorges. I recently wrote a post on BBBR that spoke to the Gorges arbitration. I too believe that we’ll see him in a Habs jersey for the coming season, but I certainly don’t believe he has the position of power to negotiate for $3M/year.
I may be way off on this one, but as the days pass, I feel that Gauthier is happy to take it to arbitration in a solid attempt to ink the defenseman at a sub 3Mill contract.
Some insightful thoughts – thanks for bringing them to light.
On another topic, websites have a right to post very negative comments about the Habs management for the last two decades, we are an embarrassment to those that came before. Gauthier and Gainey must leave the organization now.
Boss-Ton won the Stanley Cup and I’m very very upset, Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Good read Steve.
I’m also getting the feeling term is the issue here, not money. As you point out, most stats and injury will play in Gauthier’s favor, but looking at your list, Josh scores major points with “Player’s leadership abilities and public appeal” and “Overall contribution to team’s success/failure”.. I’m mostly thinking of his work on the PK and blocked shots here. Not to mention that guy shows up every night.
I understand Habs have a lot of Ds up and coming in the system, but they remain prospects and who knows what they can bring.. With Spacek gone next year, and Gill on a 1 year deal, i would consider locking in Josh for more than 1 year, if the medical staff has cleared him.
I say they get a deal done before the hearing. Take it to the bank. ;)
Great read and insightful, however I do believe that Gauthier is playing chess while most fans are playing checkers. You are entirely correct in your assumptions that management is looking ahead on these signings, there is a glut of defensive talent.
I think you’re misreading this completely. When Gorges got hurt (before his surgery) Gauthier was very emphatic that this would not affect Gorges place with the team and that he is a part of the core. Gorges too had made it as clear as he can that he has no intention or desire to play anywhere else.
We had to go through this same silliness with Price not being signed last year. Count on it he will be signed long term before the arbitration date. My best guess is 5 or 6 years at around $3M per.
Very good analysis Stevo!
I also think term is the main issue over the dollar amount. A number of good D coming up through the system, an needing to make tough decisions. I like Gorges as a workhorse stay-at-home D, and he should be fine returning from this injury; but why gamble on a long term contract? I guess that is PG’s approach.
Nice to see some sensible comments on your post.. And the others.
Shiram and Showey really need to get a life. Or maybe they are the same troll?
Good read Stevo but I think Gorges is in Gauthier’s long term plans almost by default. Yemelin & Weber will be on the roster so if Gorges and is 28+ shifts & 3:00+ PK mins a game are gone, who exactly will be replacing them? Diaz, Nash or Mitera? I hardly think so.
In fact, the Habs bench strength on defense should injuries haunt them again this season is shockingly poor. Like Expos poor. Nobody knows how Diaz will adjust and all the others in Hamilton (Nash, Mitera etc.) are bottom pairing D.
After that, Tinordi, Beaulieu and the other high ceiling D prospects are 2+ years away so barring trades, it’s Fort Apache until real helps arrives.
On top that that, any outside replacement for Gorges would cost as much or more than what he’s seeking, plus assets to do so which is why I fully expect he’ll not only sign but sign long term.
If not, the viable alternative is what exactly?
I think that no matter what, they are signing Gorges, however I expect it to be a one-year contract given by the arbitrator.
That being said, I believe it’s a viable scenario to think that a possibly pissed off Gorges, a little insulted by having to be put through this entire process, might want to test UFA market at the end of next season. Especially if for any reason, the Habs don’t have a great season.
Yeah, sure, I’m thinking way too far ahead maybe, but my cats don’t respond to me so this is where I think out loud. =)
But you would think that Gauthier knows right now, that Gorges can’t be too happy about all of this. I also don’t believe when people say that this is the business part of hockey, and that players understand it, and that it doesn’t bother them. BS. It does. Everyone has pride.
That being said, to answer your question of who to replace him with. He would only need to be replaced at the end of next season, so if I’m Gauthier, my thinking is I have one full year to figure it out.
Although I would think that the preference is to keep him long-term, don’t you think that scenario is possible?
Having two experienced dmen signed long-term wouldn’t be a luxury.
Markov is here for 3 years, but Spacek is gonna go next summer, and Gill is gonna be evaluated one year at a time.
Subban’s gonna sign long-term, but Weber and Yemelin still have to prove they’re top-6.
And you can expect Tinordi and Beaulien to spend at least one more season in junior and some time in the AHL before graduating.
At this point in time, it’s pretty optimistic to project that signing Gorges long-term will keep a promising prospect in the minors. And if it does, big deal, you move an asset.
Would you really want to sign two defensemen to 3+ year contracts who both had their knees demolished the previous season?
It’s a big risk.
Thank you all for the comments.
In regards to general comments on Habs management in the past two decades, personally, I don’t find they’ve been as terrible at drafting as some make them out to be. They’ve drafted some great young players, but I seriously do question their methods of developing players, and properly surrounding them.
Other quick points:
Yves: I also believe the “wait and see how he does” approach would be best in his case.
emann: Everyone quickly jumped on the “Don’t worry, it’ll happen before arbitration” train (myself included) but now 10 days away, with what seems to be both parties far apart, i don’t see how it can be avoided. (arbitration)
Chantal: Hard to say, I have no idea how those arbitration meetings go. What exactly classifies a player as having leadership abilities? We could argue that, but in that arbitration meeting, how do they demonstrate it? Can the simple fact that he doesn’t have a letter on his jersey play against him? I don’t know, just thinking out loud. You could also argue that without him for most of the season, they were able to do rather well without him. Just playing devil’s advocate.
serioushabit: I like your analogy!
Myron: To clarify, this was a thought and not a prediction. I had never stopped to ask myself this question (whether he might not be in their long-term plans) so when the thought came to mind, I thought it would be interesting to write about it. In regards to contract and term, we’ll have to wait and see but seeing as Gauthier only threw the qualifying offer of $1.3M/1yr to Gorges, I have trouble seeing how were gonna get to $3M with 5-6 years.
Chris: I think it’s both really, amount and term, which is why it’s not yet settled. Who would have thought this deal would be the one that took the longest?
Well if Gorges does indeed signs a long term contract and when Habs defense prospects do out perform Gorges in the future, doesn’t the extra 1-3 years left of his contract would increase his trade value a bit more than being on his last year of contract and say like in under 3m range?
That would probably attract a lot of more buyers when it comes to veteran stay at home defensemen with leadership qualities. And maybe in 1-3 years from now, salary cap would increase more than 1m-6m by then too.
While I don’t agree with some of the comments here, I think the next few years will be a rough road for Montreal fans as far as contending for anything. We seem to lack the ability to add players that combine both size and skill.
H.A.B.S Have Another Bad Season.
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