MONTREAL, QC. — The Montreal Canadiens still have a chance. I hear it everyday, whether at the office or when I’m out with friends, or even looking over at my twitter timeline, “If they go on a run, and put multiple wins together, they can get back into the playoff race!”
I guess this statement is mathematically true, but let’s also consider the following statistics. The Habs, with 45 games played, and 37 left to play are:
Rankings:
- 24th in the National Hockey League, with 42 points in 45 games.
- 12th in the Eastern Conference, 8 points out of 8th place.
- Last in the NorthEast
This isn’t being negative, these are simply the facts.
NorthEast |
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| Team | GP | W | L | OT | PTS | GF | GA | Home | Away | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 42 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 59 | 153 | 83 | 16-7-1 | 13-5-0 | 7-3-0 | Won 1 |
| Ottawa | 47 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 56 | 146 | 148 | 14-9-1 | 11-7-5 | 8-1-1 | Lost 1 |
| Toronto | 44 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 49 | 137 | 137 | 12-6-4 | 10-11-1 | 5-4-1 | Lost 2 |
| Buffalo | 45 | 19 | 21 | 5 | 43 | 112 | 134 | 11-9-5 | 8-12-0 | 2-6-2 | Lost 2 |
| Montreal | 45 | 17 | 20 | 8 | 42 | 116 | 123 | 8-8-7 | 9-12-1 | 4-5-1 | Won 1 |
(GP = Games Played; W = Wins; L = Losses; OT = OverTime Losses; PTS = Points; GF = Goals For; GA = Goals Against;)
Their struggles at home continue to surprise, me anyways. With a record of .500 at home, they are one of only five teams in the league who do not have a winning record.
What’s interesting about the Montreal Canadiens’ calendar is the fact that their next three games are against the Eastern Conference teams who are currently in:
Upcoming Three Games:
- 7th position: Washington Capitals
- 8th position: Pittsburgh Penguins
- 9th position: Toronto Maple Leafs
Eastern |
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| Rank | Team | GP | W | L | OT | PTS | GF | GA | Home | Away | Last 10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NY Rangers | 43 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 60 | 122 | 90 | 13-4-2 | 15-7-2 | 7-3-0 | Lost 1 |
| 2 | Boston | 42 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 59 | 153 | 83 | 16-7-1 | 13-5-0 | 7-3-0 | Won 1 |
| 3 | Florida | 44 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 112 | 123 | 11-5-6 | 10-9-3 | 3-4-3 | OT 1 |
| 4 | Philadelphia | 43 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 56 | 144 | 128 | 10-6-2 | 16-7-2 | 5-5-0 | Lost 1 |
| 5 | Ottawa | 47 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 56 | 146 | 148 | 14-9-1 | 11-7-5 | 8-1-1 | Lost 1 |
| 6 | New Jersey | 44 | 25 | 17 | 2 | 52 | 121 | 125 | 11-7-1 | 14-10-1 | 6-3-1 | Won 2 |
| 7 | Washington | 43 | 24 | 17 | 2 | 50 | 125 | 124 | 17-5-1 | 7-12-1 | 7-3-0 | Won 3 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 44 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 50 | 134 | 116 | 11-7-2 | 12-10-2 | 4-6-0 | Won 2 |
| 9 | Toronto | 44 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 49 | 137 | 137 | 12-6-4 | 10-11-1 | 5-4-1 | Lost 2 |
| 10 | Winnipeg | 45 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 47 | 115 | 128 | 14-8-1 | 7-11-4 | 5-5-0 | Won 1 |
| 11 | Buffalo | 45 | 19 | 21 | 5 | 43 | 112 | 134 | 11-9-5 | 8-12-0 | 2-6-2 | Lost 2 |
| 12 | Montreal | 45 | 17 | 20 | 8 | 42 | 116 | 123 | 8-8-7 | 9-12-1 | 4-5-1 | Won 1 |
| 13 | Carolina | 47 | 16 | 24 | 7 | 39 | 123 | 154 | 11-11-3 | 5-13-4 | 4-5-1 | Lost 1 |
| 14 | NY Islanders | 43 | 16 | 21 | 6 | 38 | 103 | 134 | 10-11-3 | 6-10-3 | 5-5-0 | Lost 1 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay | 44 | 17 | 23 | 4 | 38 | 121 | 156 | 11-7-1 | 6-16-3 | 3-6-1 | Lost 3 |
(GP = Games Played; W = Wins; L = Losses; OT = OverTime Losses; PTS = Points; GF = Goals For; GA = Goals Against;)
Some people would like to believe that the Montreal Canadiens will be playing their season over the next week with these three match ups. I like to believe the Montreal Canadiens season is already done. It’s over.
If only seven per cent of teams who are four points out of eighth position by November 1st make the playoffs, then I would hate to see that same stat for teams that are eight points out of eight position in mid-January.
Earlier this season, I wrote about how post-lockout, teams have had to, on average, obtain 94 points in order to make the playoffs. Since the Montreal Canadiens have picked up 42 points in 45 games, this means they would now need to obtain 52 points in only 37 games to get there. That’s 10 more points in 7 less games, a winning percentage of .703% in comparison to .466% so far this season, and a record that would look something like 23-8-6. I’m sorry but I don’t think so.
You could make the argument that Price alone could Carey the team there, but the fact of the matter is, in what has been a season of struggles, injuries and misfortunes so far this season for the Habs, has been a good season for netminder Carey Price, but not great. It’s not comparable to last season’s heroics that’s for sure, although he and Erik Cole have hands down been the Canadiens’ best players so far this season.
| Carey Price #31 | Peter Budaj #30 | ||
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2011-12 Season – Totals:
2010-11 Season – Totals:
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2011-12 Season – Totals:
2010-11 Season – Totals (Colorado):
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(GAA = Goals Against Average; Sv% = Save Percentage;)
It’s not to say that Carey Price has been awful, far from it, I’ve mentioned above that he and Cole have been the best Canadiens players so far, but he just doesn’t have that magic that he had last season, which in a way is understandable, considering the team’s struggles.
We’ve seen shades of that frustrated Carey Price pop out here and there this season, but again, it’s understandable in a season where the team seems unable to catch a break, all while stuck in a dramatic political language debate, worthy of it’s own movie or soap opera.
I constantly here phrases thrown out there, often by the crew on L’antichambre saying, “Carey Price needs to win a game for his team.” I’ve never liked that phrase. I never understood why some people believe that when a team struggles, it should be up to the goaltender to get the team back on the right track. The goaltender can only do so much, and when you put all of the pressure of putting the team back on the winning track on their shoulders, it’s simply unfair.
When it comes to goals for and goals against, the results are inline with the team’s struggles in comparison to last season. Last season, the team finished with:
Goal Differential:
- Goals For: 213, 2.60 G/PG
- Goals Against: 206, 2.51 G/PG
- Goal Differential: 7, +0.09
This season, it’s similar to last season with negative tendencies in both categories:
NHL Goal Differential |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | GP | GF | GF/G | GA | GA/G | Diff | |||||
| BOSTON | 42 | 149 | 3.55 | 87 | 2.02 | 1.53 | |||||
| DETROIT | 45 | 144 | 3.2 | 103 | 2.29 | 0.91 | |||||
| NY RANGERS | 43 | 120 | 2.79 | 87 | 1.98 | 0.81 | |||||
| VANCOUVER | 46 | 147 | 3.2 | 111 | 2.41 | 0.79 | |||||
| ST LOUIS | 45 | 115 | 2.56 | 89 | 1.98 | 0.58 | |||||
| PHILADELPHIA | 44 | 149 | 3.39 | 127 | 2.89 | 0.5 | |||||
| SAN JOSE | 42 | 118 | 2.81 | 97 | 2.31 | 0.5 | |||||
| PITTSBURGH | 45 | 132 | 2.93 | 115 | 2.56 | 0.37 | |||||
| CHICAGO | 46 | 146 | 3.17 | 130 | 2.83 | 0.34 | |||||
| NASHVILLE | 45 | 122 | 2.71 | 122 | 2.65 | 0.06 | |||||
| PHOENIX | 46 | 118 | 2.56 | 115 | 2.5 | 0.06 | |||||
| LOS ANGELES | 46 | 99 | 2.15 | 98 | 2.13 | 0.02 | |||||
| WASHINGTON | 44 | 124 | 2.82 | 125 | 2.84 | -0.02 | |||||
| MONTREAL | 45 | 115 | 2.56 | 117 | 2.6 | -0.04 | |||||
| TORONTO | 45 | 136 | 3.02 | 138 | 3.07 | -0.05 | |||||
| OTTAWA | 48 | 144 | 3 | 148 | 3.08 | -0.08 | |||||
| NEW JERSEY | 45 | 118 | 2.62 | 125 | 2.78 | -0.16 | |||||
| DALLAS | 44 | 117 | 2.66 | 125 | 2.84 | -0.18 | |||||
| FLORIDA | 44 | 110 | 2.5 | 118 | 2.68 | -0.18 | |||||
| MINNESOTA | 46 | 101 | 2.2 | 113 | 2.46 | -0.26 | |||||
| EDMONTON | 45 | 115 | 2.56 | 128 | 2.84 | -0.28 | |||||
| WINNIPEG | 46 | 115 | 2.5 | 131 | 2.85 | -0.35 | |||||
| CALGARY | 46 | 110 | 2.39 | 129 | 2.8 | -0.41 | |||||
| COLORADO | 47 | 113 | 2.4 | 134 | 2.85 | -0.45 | |||||
| BUFFALO | 45 | 110 | 2.44 | 132 | 2.93 | -0.49 | |||||
| ANAHEIM | 44 | 112 | 2.54 | 134 | 3.04 | -0.5 | |||||
| CAROLINA | 48 | 124 | 2.58 | 152 | 3.17 | -0.59 | |||||
| NY ISLANDERS | 44 | 103 | 2.34 | 132 | 3 | -0.66 | |||||
| TAMPA BAY | 44 | 119 | 2.7 | 156 | 3.47 | -0.77 | |||||
| COLUMBUS | 45 | 107 | 2.38 | 145 | 3.22 | -0.84 | |||||
(GP = Games Played; GF = Goals For; GF/G = Goals For per Game; GA = Goals Against; GA/G = Goals Against per Game; Diff = Differential)
Although the offense wasn’t great last season at 2.60 goals scored per game, only allowing 2.51 goals per game left them with a positive goal differential 0.09.
This season, the offense is only producing 2.56 goals per game, while allowing 2.60 goals per game, leaving the team with a negative goal differential of -0.04.
In a nutshell, the Canadiens are scoring less goals than they are allowing, and you can’t have success this way. Some of you might be looking at Florida who are having a successful season of 21-14-9, and wonder how they can have a goal differential of -0.18. The answer usually has to do with inconsistency. Although the Panthers have a great record, and sit third in the Eastern Conference, in the losses they’ve had, they’ve given up a lot of goals, thus explaining the negative differential.
When it comes to special teams, we’ve seen polar opposites from the Canadiens.
When it comes to the powerplay, it has been absolutely horrendous:
Power Play:
- Powerplay Opportunities: 172
- Powerplay Goals: 22
- Powerplay Percentage: 12.8%
- Rank: 30th
What’s truly embarassing about this statistic, is that the Canadiens are the fifth team in the league, who have had the most powerplay time this season, with 289:39 minutes of powerplay time.
Thankfully, the penalty kill is doing well however:
Penalty Kill:
- Times Shorthanded: 174
- Powerplay Goals Against : 19
- Powerplay percentage: 89.1%
- Rank: 2nd.
Between the powerplay and the penalty kill, it’s truly been day and night.
Where do the Canadiens go from here? Some would like the Canadiens to go on that impossible winning run and slide into the playoffs. What would that accomplish is what I ask to them? So we get to see the Bleu Blanc Rouge play a few playoff games, only to be knocked out by a better team? The Canadiens don’t have any chance of going all the way, so in my opinion, down is a better way to go than up. Sometimes you need to fall all the way down before you can get back up again.
Trade Bait?
- Travis Moen
- Hal Gill
- Chris Campoli
- Andrei Kostitsyn
- Yannick Weber
These are all players you could potentially see the Canadiens move between now and the trade deadline. In some cases, the players no longer bring much added value to this team (Gill, Campoli), while in other cases, the argument could be made that if not traded, the players will be lost to free agency over the summer (Moen, Kostitsyn). In Weber’s case, he always seems to be the odd man out and in a situation that could potentially get crowded at defense down the road, the team may seem him as expendable.
Although some are not in love with the trade, I like what Rene Bourque can bring to this team. A big physical body who can go get his nose dirty in front of the net. I hope the Canadiens continue to go in this direction, and acquire more physical bodies and once again, change the face of this team.
Have they finally realized what it takes to build a winning team? Probably not, but the fact they are finally admitting they need to get bigger is one step in the right direction. Now if only a new general manager could be brought in, to a long-term vision to this strategy.