Habs News: NHL, Montreal Canadiens, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Marc Bergevin, Carolina Hurricanes, Sebastian Aho, Offer Sheet, Don Waddell

ROCKET SPORTS MEDIA | LAVAL, QC. — It took 790 days for the Hurricanes to strike back against the Canadiens for tendering an offer sheet to Sebastian Aho. On July 1st 2019, Aho received an offer sheet worth $42.27-million over five years. Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell quickly responded that the offer would match.

On Saturday, Carolina tendered an offer sheet to Jesperi Kotkaniemi for a one-year contract that would pay the forward $6,100,015 base salary and $20 signing bonus. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun reported that the Hurricanes had been trying to trade for the forward, but both sides weren’t close to a deal.

TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reported on Sunday that the decision to offer sheet Kotkaniemi came from owner Tom Dundon. The owner didn’t appreciate in July 2019, when the Canadiens organization doubted that he’d want to pay the huge bonus linked with Aho’s front-end loaded offer sheet.

Carolina took the trolling of the Habs to a whole different level. The $20 signing bonus, and the $15 added to the base salary are a nod to Aho’s and Kotkaniemi’s jersey numbers. The Hurricanes tweeted the announcement in French, amongst other tactics on their account.

If that wasn’t enough, the official press release contained a quote from Waddell that was identical to Marc Bergevin‘s in July 2019.

Peaks and Valleys

Kotkaniemi’s tenure with the Canadiens has had its share of peaks and valleys. Since his draft in Dallas, several analysts and fans have compared the 21-year old to the Senators’ Brady Tkachuk.

The Finland native impressed management in his first training camp, that resulted in him making his National Hockey League (NHL) debut as an 18-year old. Kotkaniemi finished his rookie season with 11 goals, and 23 assists in 79 games.

His sophomore year was marked by several injuries that forced him to miss significant amount of playing time. After recording eight points through 36 games, the Canadiens assigned Kotkaniemi to the Rocket, where he seemed to have regained confidence. The young center collected 13 points in 13 games before suffering a season-ending spleen injury.

The long pause before the start of that year’s post season, allowed Kotkaniemi to recover in time to play inside the bubble. He had an important role in that 10-game stretch where he recorded four goals.

This past season, Kotkaniemi was the only player along with Nick Suzuki to be dressed for all 56 regular season games. The Canadiens 2018 draft pick scored five times, and added 15 assists while averaging 14:48 of ice time. Claude Julien and Dominique Ducharme both kept changing Kotkaniemi’s linemates and his role. Ducharme even used Kotkaniemi on right wing during the season.

Kotkaniemi was a healthy scratch for the opener of the Maple Leafs playoff series before Jake Evans‘ injury forced the coach to dress him for the following match. He remained in the lineup for the next 19 contests and collected eight points before being scratched for the final two matches of the Stanley Cup final.

Ducharme’s decision disappointed Kotkaniemi and TSN’s Darren Dregger reported on Sunday that people close to the forward didn’t expect him to return to Montreal.

The @Canes have certainly spiced things up. In early July, some close to Kotkaniemi predicted he had played his last game with the Canadiens following a healthy scratch in the Stanley Cup final. Trade seemed more likely, but Carolina has taken a far more entertaining approach.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) August 29, 2021

Offer Sheet Matched

The Canadiens matching the offer sheet has a set of consequences. From a salary cap perspective, they will still have a buffer until Paul Byron is cleared to play. Byron is expected to be on the Long Term Injury Reserve (LITR) until end of the December. At that time, Bergevin would be forced to shed some money off the roster unless there’s another player that’s on LITR.

Kotkaniemi’s $6.1-million cap hit would make him the team’s second highest paid forward behind Brendan Gallagher. It could be a dangerous precent can be set for the Canadiens. Nick Suzuki will be negotiating a new contract at the end of 2021-22 season, and is certainly paying close attention to the entire situation.

https://twitter.com/RDSuzuki/status/1431782715590852609

It’s unknown the degree to which Kotkaniemi’s relationship with the organization will be impacted by the offer sheet. The optics seem like there isn’t a solid relationship between both sides.

“That’s a very, very good question that I’ve asked myself almost every day for the last couple of weeks,” Bergevin said when asked if he was confident that Kotkaniemi was ready to be a number-two centre this season.

“If I don’t have a choice, if I don’t see there’s a fit [to acquire a center], then I’m going to hope that KK gets the job done,” added the general manager. Those words don’t inspire confidence in Kotkaniemi’s play. Bergevin wouldn’t be able to match the offer sheet and then trade Kotkaniemi to another team, as Montreal is forced to keep him in the organization for 12 months.

The fans scrutiny of the 21-year old will be intensified based on the contract’s dollar value. His offensive numbers will need to jump higher than the 0.36 points per game that he’s averaged since his NHL debut.

Taking The Picks

Bergevin was likely already looking to improving his centers even before the news broke about the offer sheet. If the Canadiens decide not to match and settle for the Hurricanes’ first and third round draft picks, Bergevin will need to shop for two centers. A reminder that the general manager has repeated countless times that it’s hard to acquire centers via trade.

Jake Evans, Cedric Paquette, Ryan Poehling and perhaps Mathieu Perreault (if his back condition allows) will battle at training camp for the three center positions behind Suzuki on the current roster. If it wasn’t hard enough already, in my opinion, there’s no chance for a playoff spot without an improvement down the middle.

The added cap space would give the team more flexibility to make a move, certainly more options than if the offer is matched. Flexibility means that there’s a chance that Bergevin can end up acquiring a center that’s an upgrade to Kotkaniemi. That possibility is far from being certain.

If Montreal allows Kotkaniemi to become a Hurricane, Poehling would be the only Canadiens first round pick drafted between 2006 and 2018 remaining in the organization. That is not a good track record for the club.

Final Decision

The Canadiens have until Saturday to make their decision. It’s not an easy one to make. Carolina’s reply to the Aho offer sheet is significantly better than Montreal’s attempt in 2019. The Hurricanes plan is to handcuff the Canadiens by overpaying for Kotkaniemi this season in order to obtain his rights. I think everyone agrees that the forward isn’t worth $6.1-million next season.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on the 31 Thoughts podcast that he believes that the Canadiens offered a two-year extension worth $2.5-million per season. Friedman also suggested that the Hurricanes discussed the framework of a long term contract to sign with the 21-year at the end of the upcoming season. The long term deal would be worth less than $6.1-million annually.

Based on all the available information, I think that the Canadiens will decide to take the draft picks and lose Kotkaniemi’s rights.

Regardless of the outcome, it has been quite the roller coaster of emotions for Canadiens fans this summer. From the controversial first round draft pick, possible career ending injury to Shea Weber, Carey Price‘s surgery and being exposed to Seattle, the Stanley Cup Final appearance seems like a distant memory.

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