by Blain Potvin, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
Last week we looked at Tomas Plekanec and his value to the Canadiens. Despite his advancing age, and his current dip in production, he plays a key role as the shutdown center and defensive conscious of the team’s forward group. That said, his value on the trade market, while still good, is on the decline.
As this unscientific poll shows, a cross-section of Canadiens’ fans see Plekanec as the team’s thirrd line center. His cap hit of six million dollars is a hefty cost for a forward seemingly on the decline playing for a team with championship aspirations.
#Habs fans. Is Plekanec still a top 6 centre? #Habsnation #Canadiens @AllHabs
— Blain (@Potsy_70) November 4, 2016
Plekanec is highly valued by Michel Therrien in the shutdown role and for his versatility as a two-way center. So far this season in five against five play, Plekanec averages 1.10 goals against per 60 minutes played (GA/60). That’s best on the Canadiens and top-5 in the league for centres who play a regular role.
Plekanec has proven to be capable of playing against the best centres in the NHL. And this has had a positive impact for the Canadiens goals against this season, currently fourth in the NHL in total goals allowed.
However, either due to his age, or the focus on his defensive responsibilities demanded by the coaching staff, his offensive output has been declining. He currently averages 0.59 goals scored per 60 minutes played (GF/60) in five-on-five play. This produces a net loss of 0.59 goals per 60 minutes. This lack of production should improve itself as Plekanec slowly works his way out of his production slump.
Despite his strong defensive play, it can be argued that Montreal is in need of an upgrade at center. Alex Galchenyuk has begun to fit into the role of a top line NHL centerman. Despite his serious troubles in the faceoff circle, Alex has been producing offensively while playing well enough defensively to remain in that role.
Torrey Mitchell has cemented himself as the team’s fourth line center. And Phillip Danault has begun to fill some of the promise that Marc Bergevin saw in him when he traded Dale Weise to Chicago. Despite Danault’s strong start, the jury is still out on if he can be a full time NHL center, let alone one that can produce reliably offensively in the top-6 role in which Therrien has placed him.
The prospect pool at center is thin. Michael McCarron is the only center prospect who can realistically crack the NHL lineup in the next season or two. The remaining prospects have varying skill levels and require much more seasoning before they can be seen as ready to prove themselves at the NHL level. This leaves few options from within to upgrade at the centre position.
What about the trade route? Plekanec is the only center who has significant value on the market. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Bergevin should pull the trigger. Any upgrade would need to include the cost of all assets to be moved.
Obviously, if a star like Matt Duchene was available, he would be an instantaneous upgrade. But, realistically, that type of trade is a pipe dream no matter how many times fans tweet about it. But what options might be available?
Firstly, let’s review Martin Hanzal. While he doesn’t have a no-trade clause, Arizona reached out to him for a list of preferred teams should a trade be realized. This speaks to the high level of esteem team management holds for Hanzal.
The acquisition of Hanzal would instantly improve Montreal’s faceoff percentage. Yet, last season his five-on-five GA/60 is 2.08, significantly higher than Plekanec’s rate. However, his five-on-five GF/60 is 2.37, making him net positive. That would be an improvement on Plekanec’s current differential.
Hanzal is in the last year of his contract that pays him an average of $3.1 million per season. The six foot-six, 227-pound center would likely be looking for a raise on any contract extension. However, unlike Plekanec who has missed very few games in his career, Hanzal has never played a full season. Nevertheless, the 29-year-old is an underappreciated, big bodied, two-way center with skill who can play in a second-line role.
Another option is Mikael Backlund. He is a center who has been rumored to have been targeted by Bergevin in the past.
The six-foot-one-inch, 200-pound Swede is under contract for another season at $3.575 million. Backlund has very good skating ability, is aggressive on the puck and displays solid positioning. While strong as a two-way forward, he also has the playmaking potential to put up points in a top six role. That said, Backlund has yet to produce points to the levels Plekanec has in the past.
Backlund is a determined player and has been an asset on special teams for Calgary. He currently fills a second-line role for the Flames, and his five-on-five GF/60 is currently 2.71. With a GA/60 of 2.12, Backlund also has a net positive result.
On paper, these options would seem like an upgrade on Plekanec but only if we choose to look at these specific statistics. Fewer than 20 games have been played in the 2016-17 season meaning that the numbers presented above are based on a very small sample.
There is always more to consider. Are Plekanec’s numbers for the first 17 games of the season typical or predictive? Are the players discussed the only available options? The answer is likely ‘no’ to those questions.
Before any trade, there are other questions that would arise when replacing a 12-year Canadiens’ veteran. How would a replacement fit on the current roster? Could they handle the responsibilities currently shouldered by Plekanec? Can they outproduce Plekanec offensively? How would the dressing room respond to losing one of its quiet leaders?
There is also the question of the additional assets that would be demanded be it an additional roster player, prospect or draft pick? What are the cap ramifications for both teams involved in the trade?
The expansion draft is another aspect that cannot be ignored. Would Plekanec be the sacrificial lamb on an unprotected list?
Canadiens fans will always have differing opinions on Plekanec, as they tend to do on most subjects, but there is no denying his defensive ability. If he is to be moved, it will only be if Bergevin is able to add a productive two–way player without selling off the future. As unlikely as a ‘trade Plekanec’ scenario may be, it is one that Bergevin will consider if it means taking the Canadiens another step closer to the ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup.