by Kristina Ashqar, AllHabs.net
MONTREAL, QC. –As the Canadiens begin one of their tougher weeks of the 2010-2011 NHL season, playing four games in six nights, there remains an unanswered question in minds of many: When does Jacques Martin call on Alex Auld to start his first game as a Montreal Canadien?
With the majority of the teams in the NHL not yet hitting the 10-game mark yet, Carey Price stands alone with Kari Lehtonen of the Dallas Stars and Nikolai Khabibulin of the Edmonton Oilers as the only number one goaltenders who have started every game on their team’s schedules so far.
Of the three goaltenders, Lehtonen holds the best save percentage at .930 and the best winning percentage, having won five out of the seven games the Stars have played. On the other hand, Carey Price has the lowest goals against average at 2.27 but has faced 51 fewer shots than Lehtonen while winning four of seven starts. Khabibulin has a woeful 3.21 GAA in six games, facing 192 shots and losing four games in a row following a 2-0 start to the season. So what’s my point? The range of stats shows that there is no scientific answer as to when you should call on your backup goaltender to play a game for your team.
I will refrain from over analyzing the goalie situation within the Stars and Oilers organizations; however, I will say this: Kari Lehtonen has firmly established himself as the number one goalie in Dallas with the departure of Marty Turco and it is evident that he will likely play upwards of 65 games this season for the first time since the 2006-2007 season with the Thrashers. Meanwhile, in Edmonton, Khabibulin is one of the veteran pillars that is vital to an organization that is in rebuild mode, needing to execute strong goaltender performances night in and night out to give the Oil a fighting chance in the playoff race. Both these goalies have played more than 65 games in a season at least once and there is little doubt that they will do the same this season.
So back to the Habs. Carey Price played 52 games in the 2008-2009 season, the most he has every played in the NHL. But based on the last 7 games, it is evident that this record will be shattered by the end of the year. So if there is no scientific answer as to when your number one should take a seat on the bench for the night, what goes into the decision making process? I have narrowed it down to four factors, in no particular order.
1. Divisional Matchups
With playoffs spots being determined as late as a shootout goal in the last game of the regular season, it is without question that your number one goalie should be playing every single divisional game whether it is a back-to-back game or not. The two points gained from a win is in theory worth four points and a team not having their number one guy in one divisional game can cost them a spot in the post season.
The Canadiens have no divisional games this week, giving a ✔ in favor of Auld starting at least one game in the next six days.
2. Back-to-back games
Back-to-back games is also an important factor in the decision making process of who gets the start. Subfactors within this point include whether or not both are road games, the time of the year, the team’s standing going into the back-to-back, the coach’s assessment of fatigue level, and more obviously if the goalie got a W in the first game.
Generally, your number one should not play a multitude of back-to-back games, unless the games are divisional match-ups. Therefore, in the case of the Habs this week, Auld gets another ✔ to start one of those two games. To further that point, Price should be kept fresh for the divisional back-to-back the following week against Ottawa and Buffalo.
On the subfactors, a road game is a good place to have your back-up start a game for the simple reason that it eliminates the pressure of winning in front of the home crowd. That’s another ✔for Auld to start the game on Friday night.
Carey Price has already proved that he can win back-to-back games this season, against two divisional opponents no-less, and considering that those wins came while playing three games in four nights demonstrates that the time of year consideration and fatigue levels are not concerns right now. However, the fact that neither game is a divisional game cancels out the + for Price getting the start.
The team’s standing and whether or not the goalie got a W in the first game are points that cannot be answered at the start of the week; however, even without analyzing these factors, there appears to be stronger evidence for Auld to start the game against the Islanders on Friday night.
3. Quality of Opponents
The quality of the opponents certainly affects who gets the nod. Since we know that Price is getting his 8th straight start tonight there is no point in analyzing the decision behind the Phoenix game. Although it seems as though that decision was a no-brainer, Price had a shutout in the previous game, and coaches never change a winning line-up.
Generally, your number one should be playing most if not all of the teams that fall into the top four of each conference to give your team the best chance to win. Since the NHL season is still so young, the sample size of top four teams in each conference is not representative of what the standings will look like by game 50. Although the Islanders are not considered to be an elite team in the league, they are nevertheless ahead of the Habs in the standings as of Monday morning. On that basis, Price should get the + for the game on Wednesday night – you need to give your team every opportunity to leap-frog your immediate opponents within the conference.
In looking at the Panthers, the team is sitting in the basement of the Eastern conference, seemingly giving the ✔ for Auld to get the start. However, in considering point two above, Auld’s first start should not be at home. Therefore, Price gets the + for the Saturday night home game.
4. Prior game performances
It is the golden rule in sport: You never change a winning line-up. Whether it is superstition or belief that your system is working doesn’t matter. If Carey Price wins against the Coyotes tonight and then follows it up with a win against the Islanders on Wednesday at home, don’t be surprised to see him get the + for Friday night’s game.
The one caveat to Price not getting the start on Friday night if he wins tonight and Wednesday is that that would mean Price would be getting his 10th consecutive start and Jacques Martin may view the Friday night road game the best opportunity for Auld to win a game.
These four factors are by no means the only the factors that go into such a decision, but an educated guess would indicate that Alex Auld will get the nod on Friday night on the road against the Islanders. But then again, who knows what Jacques Martin has written in his notebook.
(Photo by Marie-France Coallier/The Gazette)