By Dan Kramer, Senior Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
TORONTO, ON – With only a few days remaining until the 2013 NHL Trade Deadline, many believe the Pittsburgh Penguins have already swept in and stolen the show. Adding three of the bigger names known to be available in Jarome Iginla, Brenden Morrow, and Doug Murray early has both stolen the thunder of many a Trade Centre host or panelist and also put pressure on any other teams with ideas of winning this year’s Stanley Cup.
While it may be true that, on paper, Pittsburgh becomes the odds-on favourite to win the Stanley Cup – or at least the Eastern Conference – the game isn’t played on paper. That means that the next few days leading up to April 3rd could prove critical for other clubs with their own thoughts of long playoff runs.
After all, the reinforcements brought in by the Penguins don’t make the possibility of injuries hitting their star players less likely, or significantly reduce the odds of running into a hot goaltender and/or having a goaltending meltdown of their own, or exclude the possibility of the three newcomers, each of whom has played for just one team their entire NHL career, not fitting in well on-ice with a new squad.
So what do you do if you’re Marc Bergevin and the Montreal Canadiens? Your team is performing well and in a neck-and-neck race with the Boston Bruins for the Northeast Division crown. You know the Bruins are looking to add to their roster for a Cup run, and that you’ll likely have to get through the Penguins at some point if you want to reach the Final.
But before you decide to forego the longer-term plan to keep up in an arms race, you must think back to last season where a similar Habs’ roster finished dead last in the East. Is this really the year? Is the team’s play up till now a mirage, simply an anomaly helped along by an abbreviated regular season?
We know that Bergevin isn’t throwing caution to the wind, as he himself has stated that he wouldn’t mortgage the future for short-term rentals this season. But we also know there are areas he is looking to address, as evidenced in the waiver claim of Jeff Halpern, the auditions of prospects Greg Pateryn, Jarred Tinordi, and now Nathan Beaulieu on the blueline, and the waiving of Tomas Kaberle to ensure he has a spare roster spot to play with if needed. So what’s the right play? While the Stanley Cup is seldom won or lost on deadline day, a team can still win or lose in the trade market. Here we breakdown what would fit under either category for the Canadiens come mid-week.
#WINNING
Some of the most successful additions – be they at the trade deadline or during the off-season – come not from targeting the biggest names on the market, but rather through identifying players who fill specific team needs and are the best fits for the new environment. The deadline isn’t the time to shake up the core of your entire roster – at least no for a playoff team – but rather to tinker in addressing the weaknesses that a General Manager has concluded must be shored up during the course of the season.
So what are the needs that Marc Bergevin has pinpointed? The recent cycling through of defensive prospects indicates he may deem it necessary to round out his blueline in filling a vacancy left since Raphael Diaz suffered a concussion. Diaz has yet to even resume full workouts in the gym, meaning a return this season is unlikely, and while we’ve only gotten our first look at Beaulieu, it’s unlikely either Pateryn or Tinordi did enough to prove to be Bergevin that they’d be dependable solutions come playoff time.
Fortunately for the Habs’ General Manager, the market for blueline rentals has been well established early. Douglas Murray returned a guaranteed second along with either a second or third round selection. Saturday, Jordan Leopold went for a second and either a fourth or fifth. A similar return should be expected, then, for a player like Robyn Regehr, who may interest the Canadiens, while names like Ladislav Smid, Ryan Whitney, or Mark Streit could conceivably become available for packages closer to the upper limit of that scale.
The ideal fit for the team would be a big, tough, crease-clearing blueliner, who is comfortable playing on the right side and can take a shift on a second powerplay unit. Not asking for much, right? Well add the fact that a true win would involve also holding on to all the team’s top prospects, and at least two of the three 2013 second rounders currently in inventory.
Regehr may have lost a step or three since his Calgary days, but his 6’3″ crease-clearing presence may make him the ideal fit, given Edmonton might be looking for more immediate help and the Islanders may not want to move their captain being so close to a playoff spot.
What else might attract Bergevin’s attention? The Canadiens are loaded with forward depth, but while they’ve undoubtedly gotten the upper hand in the Michael Ryder – Erik Cole swap, there are elements of Cole – at least last year’s Cole – that the club could use back. That means not targeting a depth grinder – and please, fighting in the playoffs is nearly irrelevant – but looking for a forward with size who can bring a physical game and who crashes the net consistently. The team has one such player on injured reserve in Rene Bourque, and while there has been more progress in his concussion recovery than in that of Diaz, there are no guarantees he’ll return this season either.
Power forward types don’t grow on trees and generally cost a pretty penny to acquire. Much of the talk has surrounded Ryane Clowe, who would be a hot commodity in most seasons, but has yet to score a goal in the final season of his current deal before he’s set to become an unrestricted free agent July 1st. Reported asking prices have been in the vicinity of a first round pick with a mid-level prospect, or a second rounder with a top prospect, which is likely to be too rich for most teams to bite on. Clowe brings toughness and size, but isn’t the quickest skater, and isn’t close to the 40-60 point paces of his past few seasons. There is also concern that he comes with shoulder issues which are limiting his effectiveness.
Even with all the caveats, adding a Clowe could be a fit. He would be an impact addition that could be a win for the Habs, provided the price isn’t too high, that health concerns are overblown and that – just maybe – a move to his childhood favourite team helps something click on in his game this year. A second round choice and a second tier prospect – think Morgan Ellis, Michael Bournival, or Steve Quailer – would be the most the team could offer without risking the move backfiring against them, and if Bergevin can get it done at that price, he’d earn top marks from most analysts.
If it’s no Clowe, who else is on the market? If the Dallas Stars can’t re-sign him, despite playoff aspirations of their own, the team may consider moving pending UFA Jaromir Jagr. Jagr has been tied to Montreal every time he hits the market because of his friendship and chemistry with Tomas Plekanec, though the team has always preferred to pass on signing the legendary 41-year old. Jagr’s 14 goals in 32 games are more than any player currently on Montreal’s roster, and he would give a different look to a powerplay that has become overly reliant on P.K. Subban‘s point shot. If he is moved, Jagr is likely to command a similar price to Clowe, with teams offering second round selections plus deal sweeteners to win a bidding war.
A win could also be finding a player for whom there is lesser demand and managing to bring them in without paying a big price. If Bourque can’t return, this category would mean a player like proven playoff performer Ruslan Fedotenko, playmaking Vinny Prospal, enigmatic Brad Boyes, or dinosaur Mike Knuble, any of whom – along with a hopefully signed Danny Kristo – would give the team other options to provide offense on the Lars Eller line and as security in case of injury to a scoring forward. While there is depth in terms of bottom six players within the Canadiens organization, it gets mighty thin if you lose a top 6 scorer – or heaven forbid two. But only if these guys were brought in on the cheap.
Then there’s also the option of players under contract: Bergevin could win the day by pulling a rabbit out of his hat. Will a Buffalo rebuild put a player like Jason Pominville or even Thomas Vanek on the market? Will a Flames fire sale make Curtis Glencross – who is signed to a cheap deal and has as many goals as Jagr – available to the highest bidder? Or perhaps he targets a smaller name like a David Moss in Phoenix (who somehow has a no trade clause in his deal) or a Tomas Kopecky in Florida. No doubt this is one of the times where the expanded staff he hired last summer will pay dividends, able to work phones and e-mails to be tracking down multiple leads all at once.
#LOSING
There is no reason to expect Marc Bergevin to make a big mistake at the deadline based on what we’ve seen so far. But what are some of the riskier propositions that may tempt the head honcho heading into his first trade deadline with such responsibilities?
If either Jarred Tinordi or Nathan Beaulieu belong to a different organization at 3 PM on April 3rd, then Bergevin will not be holding true to his word of not mortgaging the future, and will be doing the organization a disservice. As exciting as it is to see the team’s success this year, it shouldn’t come at the price of sacrificing two players who look to be big parts of the team’s core moving forward. Similarly, it is not the time to throw away a first round pick for a short-term fix, particularly with the 2013 draft seeming deep enough for the team to add a top prospect even speaking later in the round.
Speaking of first round choices, of the three second rounders the team holds, Bergevin would be wise to hang on to the Calgary pick acquired in the Mike Cammalleri deal, as it looks to be an early choice in that round, nearing the value of a late first.
It’s easy to say that giving up any real assets is losing, but realistically, you have to give to get. Thus, while I think it perfectly acceptable to give up one of the three seconds (either that of Montreal or Nashville) and one of the two thirds to improve the roster, going after the wrong player(s) would simply be poor asset management.
The wrong players come in a variety of shapes and forms. They could be too old (Milan Hejduk), too inconsistent (Ryan O’Byrne), or simply not bring enough to the table to improve the roster. Many have spoken of adding additional tough grinders to the bottom six to support the work done by Brandon Prust, but with Travis Moen, Ryan White, Colby Armstrong, and now Jeff Halpern on the roster, plus Gabriel Dumont waiting in the wings, acquiring such a player would likely be a waste of assets.
Another way to lose would be taking on a contract that extends beyond this season for a questionable player. There’s a reason Jussi Jokinen cleared waivers last week, so Bergevin must stay patient even if his top targets don’t pan out. With Tomas Kaberle already certain to use up the team’s remaining compliance buyout this summer, any contracts brought in risk handicapping the club moving forward.
Staying the course by staying put isn’t losing. The Canadiens have shown their current roster can compete with any team in the East. You may not get a season like this, where you enjoy the health of most of your top players and benefit from many being on top of their games all at once, all that often, which is an argument for “going for it” (without going “all in”). But another goal is to stockpile assets so that as you move into the territory of being a true contender, you have the picks and prospects to make moves like Pittsburgh has over the past week. Holding and using a first, two seconds, and three thirds in the 2013 draft (or potentially giving up one or two of them to upgrade some picks to earlier selections) is a great way to stock the cupboards full of guys who can either be future players or valuable future trade chips.
What will happen on April 3rd? It history tells us anything, likely a lot less than any of us expect. The world of insiders and Twitter means fewer deals come out of left field than at any point in the past, but when thirty General Managers are faced with a deadline, surprises aren’t out of the question.
The safe money, however, would be on Bergevin dealing either Montreal’s second or Nashville’s second, along with a third or prospect, for defensive help. And that would be it. No “big splash,” no “grand coup,” but a move to solidify the back end, and give some support to a Canadiens squad that has been proving naysayers wrong all year in looking like a team with the potential to make a playoff run.