Habs Feature: Montreal, Canadiens, Habs, NHL, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Arber Xhekaj, Johnathan Kovacevic, Kent Hughes, Playoffs
ROCKET SPORTS MEDIA | MONTREAL, QC. — The Montreal Canadiens have arrived at the quarter point of the season. The season is still very young, but there is a good sample size to evaluate the team’s play so far.
Here you will find my personal observations on the team so far and what I expect from them in the future.
Is a playoff spot within reach?
The first observation that comes to mind 21 games into the season is the Canadiens’ unexpected 11-9-1 record. This record ranks them sixth in the eight team Atlantic division with 21 points; only Buffalo and Ottawa trail them.
If we dare to take a ‘far too early’ look at the Eastern Conference playoff picture, we see that the Canadiens are just two points back of the Tampa Bay Lighting and the Pittsburgh Penguins for a wild card slot. Any conversation of the Canadiens being in pursuit of a playoff spot is obviously surprising; this surpasses most people’s expectations for this team.
On the Hockey Night in Canada broadcast on Saturday, it was reported that the Canadiens have the worst odds of any Canadian team to make the playoffs. In other words, Montreal has a worse chance of making the playoffs than teams who currently trail them in the standings: Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Ottawa.
Tapping another reliable source, MoneyPuckdotcom calculates the current Canadiens odds of making the playoffs at just 5.7 percent, ahead of only Philadelphia, Chicago, Columbus and Anaheim. So why such a longshot?
With Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh presently occupying the wild card spots and the Rangers and Panthers between them and the Canadiens, Montreal would have to finish ahead of three of the four of those teams. And the Capitals are also expected to be part of the conversation.
Additionally, if the Habs keep playing at a .525 points percentage pace, they will end the season with 86 points. That won’t be enough for the Habs to be in a playoff spot. But this season was never intended to be a push for the playoffs; instead it was designed as an orderly overhaul of the roster to jettison players who will not be part of the future and bring in young, skilled talent. And that takes time!
Young but capable defense
A second observation I noted at this point of the season is the quality of the defensive group. While the defense is far from perfect, I am impressed with some players, especially the young rookies. In a previous article, I briefly talked about Kaiden Guhle’s veteran-like play.
Jordan Harris and Arber Xhekaj are also playing well for rookies and are both contributing to the offense.
Jonathan Kovacevic is also displaying good hockey. He doesn’t get a lot of attention from the media. But considering he is only 25 years old, and a waiver pickup, he should get praised for his play. Harris and Kovacevic formed a solid second-pairing for the majority of the season.
The first ten minutes
Another observation I noted is one that Martin St. Louis made himself before the Canadiens’ game against the Buffalo Sabres on November 22nd. That is, the Canadiens’ biggest challenge in the past few games has been the first 10 minutes of the game. That was confirmed in recent games against the Philadelphia Flyers and the Sabres. In both games, the Habs give up two goals less than three minutes in.
I would go further and say the first period in general has been the Achilles heel for the Habs so far this season. It’s as if the Habs come out flat at the start of games. This issue needs to be addressed if the Canadiens want to keep winning.
Winning or developing?
However, trying to develop young players and getting talented draft prospects while at the same time working to build a winning culture is far from easy. It would be great to do both in an ideal situation. But reality is far from ideal.
Pursuing two goals that sometimes clash with each other is bound to lead to decisions where one goal is prioritized. For example, Mike Matheson’s return to the lineup last Saturday November 19th forced the Habs to make a lineup decision at the blue line.
Yet, instead of sending a waiver-exempt player down to Laval, the coaching staff decided to implement a rotation type of lineup. With this system, Xhekaj, Harris and Kovacevic are in and out of the formation, depending on the preferred pairings against the opposing team.
While this gives Martin St. Louis a lot of options on defense, this does not seem ideal for development. There is a risk that a young player sits out many games in a row. Missing games frequently could hinder his confidence and development.
Harris’s recent usage shows this risk is real. Harris has been scratched the past two games and he might not be in the lineup on Tuesday’s game against the San Jose Sharks considering the team won these games.
If the Canadiens win a third straight game without Harris, one has to wonder what decision the coaching staff will make. Will they keep Harris out of the lineup until the team has a bad game?
Therefore, my last observation is that the Canadiens need to be careful not to overlook development to continue winning.
A lot of hockey left to play
With all this said, the season is still young. The Canadiens and young defense group might not keep performing at this level all season long.
Furthermore, there is a strong possibility that Kent Hughes trades a veteran or two before the tradeline. This or these eventual trades will most probably affect both the lineup and play of the team. But, before then, it is still possible to make some interesting assessments about the team.
What will be even more interesting is to see if those assessments hold true until the end of the season.
First Quarter Grades | Canadiens Connection podcast
Episode 219 of the Canadiens Connection podcast includes player’s grades for the first quarter of the season and two interviews: Canadiens forward Michael Pezzetta and the Director of Movember Canada, Todd Minerson.
Listen in the player below, share and subscribe!
By Gustave Pinault-Masson, Staff Writer
All Habs Hockey Magazine
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