Written by Habsterix, AllHabs.net

As the end of this NHL season is fast approaching, Habs fans find themselves in a very unusual position. With their favourite team all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for a few weeks already, the team is looking at the possibility of a lottery pick at this year’s NHL Entry Draft in Pittsburgh in June.

PENTICTON, BC. — Two of the most talented players in this year’s draft are Russians Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko. Yakupov, who recently returned from a knee injury he suffered at the last World Junior Championship, plays for the Sarnia Sting in the Ontario Hockey League. He recently left the game after receiving an elbow to the head. Grigorenko is a 6’3” centre who is a more familiar face to hockey fans in Quebec, playing for the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL under coach Patrick Roy.

But what about the “Russian factor?” Is it a myth or reality? Unfortunately, many argue that it is reality by spewing propaganda against Russian players, even going as far as playing the ethnic card. But let’s have a closer look at Russian players drafted since 2000. Note that included in the numbers are countries surrounding Russia which used to be part of the old USSR, as those players are more likely to want to “stay home” and play in the KHL.

We can notice a definite drop in the overall number of Russian players being drafted each year in spite of Russia having some of the best individual talent. Let’s now look at the breakdown, year by year:

Out of 31 Russians selected in the first round since 2000, 10 are playing in the NHL (32 percent) while 19 are playing in Russia (61 percent). This means that based on the past 12 years, three out of five Russians selected in the first round will be lured back to their home country to play at home — with part of the allure being no taxes. No matter how people put a twist to it, the fact remains that drafting a Russian player is a huge gamble for a NHL team to take on.

Let’s first acknowledge that potential doesn’t guarantee success in the NHL.  In spite of the fact that teams are more and more conscious of the risk involved in drafting Russian players (they are doing more homework on not only the hockey players but on the individuals), including weighing the odds of them wanting to make the jump to the North America, a majority of teams end up losing on their first round pick, an irreplaceable asset in a league with a salary cap. It is also a given that Russian players coming over to North America to play their junior hockey seem to stand a better chance at playing in the NHL as by then, they are more accustomed to the culture and the language. This however is no guarantee, as the Radulov case would suggest, and the numbers listed above include all situations.

When asked if Russian players have a red flag when comes draft day, here’s what Penguins general manager Ray Shero had to say:

“Big time! Nashville just basically lost that first-round pick with nothing to show for it,” Shero said.

“There’s a real difficulty,” said Barry Smith (a Penguins assistant during their Stanley Cup years in the 1990s who coached SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL for the past three seasons), “if you draft a player, when will you get the kid? The KHL is the second-best league in the world, and it’s the only other league that can pay NHL salaries.”

Drafting European or North American players does not guarantee success either, far from it. But it does seem to take the KHL-factor out of the equation.

So with that information in mind, in your opinion, should the Canadiens win the lottery and pick first or second at this year’s Entry Draft, would you consider trading that pick to select third or fourth? I know I most certainly would at least consider it.

En français: Repêchage de la LNH – Un jeu de Roulette Russe